War Evolves With Drones, Some Tiny as Bugs

Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

A microdrone during a demo flight at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. More Photos »

By ELISABETH BUMILLER and THOM SHANKER

Published: June 19, 2011

WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio — Two miles from the cow pasture where the Wright Brothers learned to fly the first airplanes, military researchers are at work on another revolution in the air: shrinking unmanned drones, the kind that fire missiles into Pakistan and spy on insurgents in Afghanistan, to the size of insects and birds.

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• At War Blog: Imagining the Future of Military Gadgetry (June 19, 2011)

The base’s indoor flight lab is called the “microaviary,” and for good reason. The drones in development here are designed to replicate the flight mechanics of moths, hawks and other inhabitants of the natural world. “We’re looking at how you hide in plain sight,” said Greg Parker, an aerospace engineer, as he held up a prototype of a mechanical hawk that in the future might carry out espionage or kill.
Half a world away in Afghanistan, Marines marvel at one of the new blimplike spy balloons that float from a tether 15,000 feet above one of the bloodiest outposts of the war, Sangin in Helmand Province. The balloon, called an aerostat, can transmit live video — from as far as 20 miles away — of insurgents planting homemade bombs. “It’s been a game-changer for me,” Capt. Nickoli Johnson said in Sangin this spring. “I want a bunch more put in.”
From blimps to bugs, an explosion in aerial drones is transforming the way America fights and thinks about its wars. Predator drones, the Cessna-sized workhorses that have dominated unmanned flight since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, are by now a brand name, known and feared around the world. But far less known is the sheer size, variety and audaciousness of a rapidly expanding drone universe, along with the dilemmas that come with it.
The Pentagon now has some 7,000 aerial drones, compared with fewer than 50 a decade ago. Within the next decade the Air Force anticipates a decrease in manned aircraft but expects its number of “multirole” aerial drones like the Reaper — the ones that spy as well as strike — to nearly quadruple, to 536. Already the Air Force is training more remote pilots, 350 this year alone, than fighter and bomber pilots combined.
“It’s a growth market,” said Ashton B. Carter, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer.
The Pentagon has asked Congress for nearly $5 billion for drones next year, and by 2030 envisions ever more stuff of science fiction: “spy flies” equipped with sensors and microcameras to detect enemies, nuclear weapons or victims in rubble. Peter W. Singer, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and the author of “Wired for War,” a book about military robotics, calls them “bugs with bugs.”
In recent months drones have been more crucial than ever in fighting wars and terrorism. The Central Intelligence Agency spied on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan by video transmitted from a new bat-winged stealth drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, otherwise known as the “Beast of Kandahar,” named after it was first spotted on a runway in Afghanistan. One of Pakistan’s most wanted militants, Ilyas Kashmiri, was reported dead this month in a C.I.A. drone strike, part of an aggressive drone campaign that administration officials say has helped paralyze Al Qaeda in the region — and has become a possible rationale for an accelerated withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan. More than 1,900 insurgents in Pakistan’s tribal areas have been killed by American drones since 2006, according to the Web site www.longwarjournal.com.
In April the United States began using armed Predator drones against Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s forces in Libya. Last month a C.I.A.-armed Predator aimed a missile at Anwar al-Awlaki, the radical American-born cleric believed to be hiding in Yemen. The Predator missed, but American drones continue to patrol Yemen’s skies.
Large or small, drones raise questions about the growing disconnect between the American public and its wars. Military ethicists concede that drones can turn war into a videogame, inflict civilian casualties and, with no Americans directly at risk, more easily draw the United States into conflicts. Drones have also created a crisis of information for analysts on the end of a daily video deluge. Not least, the Federal Aviation Administration has qualms about expanding their test flights at home, as the Pentagon would like. Last summer, fighter jets were almost scrambled after a rogue Fire Scout drone, the size of a small helicopter, wandered into Washington’s restricted airspace.
Within the military, no one disputes that drones save American lives. Many see them as advanced versions of “stand-off weapons systems,” like tanks or bombs dropped from aircraft, that the United States has used for decades. “There’s a kind of nostalgia for the way wars used to be,” said Deane-Peter Baker, an ethics professor at the United States Naval Academy, referring to noble notions of knight-on-knight conflict. Drones are part of a post-heroic age, he said, and in his view it is not a always a problem if they lower the threshold for war. “It is a bad thing if we didn’t have a just cause in the first place,” Mr. Baker said. “But if we did have a just cause, we should celebrate anything that allows us to pursue that just cause.”

Netanyahu: Israel needs to separate from the Palestinians

Very interesting. It is my understanding Gaza will be one of the people groups to attack Israel when a group of nations come against it. If this is to happen, I'd expect the Palestinian people in Gaza would have to be self-governing. A move from Netanyahu to cede the territory to the Palestinians will doubtless lead to cross-border attacks from the Palestinians should they acquire the means to do so. These means would be readily supplied by sympathising nations like Iran and  Syria. Time will tell...

Steve B

===== 

The prime minister tells cabinet that it's more important to 'preserve a solid Jewish majority inside the State of Israel' than holding land home to a Palestinian majority.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu surprised many of the participants in the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday when he embarked on a monologue praising the idea of parting from the Palestinians and in relinquishing portions of the West Bank. Netanyahu said the number of Palestinians and Jews between the Jordan River and the sea "is irrelevant" and that it's more important to "preserve a solid Jewish majority inside the State of Israel."

The PM made these statements during a discussion on a report by the Jewish People Policy Institute on demographic changes among Jews and Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank.

Members of the institute presented the demographic data of Prof. Sergio DellaPergola, which show that, in a number of years, the demographic trends will result in a Palestinian majority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

Ministers Limor Livnat and Uzi Landau were surprised by the data and asked that the data of other experts be presented - for example, the data of Yoram Ettinger, who is affiliated with the right. The right argue that the demographic threat to the State of Israel is not so serious.

The prime minister cut short the discussion and surprised those present with previously unspoken sentiments about the future Israeli presence in the West Bank.

"The debate over how many Jews and how many Palestinians will be between the Jordan and the sea is irrelevant," Netanyahu said. "It does not matter to me whether there are half a million more Palestinians or less because I have no wish to annex them into Israel. I want to separate from them so that they will not be Israeli citizens. I am interested that there be a solid Jewish majority inside the State of Israel. Inside its borders, as these will be defined," Netanyahu explained.

Aides of the PM realized how politically explosive his statements were and asked all those present in the room to avoid disseminating the details.

The Prime Minister's Office did not brief the media on the statements and refused to respond to questions on the issue or provide any quotes about the statements of the PM.

Published 02:38 21.06.11
source: http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/netanyahu-israel-needs-to-separate-from-the-palestinians-1.368795

End Time SIgns: Mid-Range Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century

20th Century death tolls larger than 100,000 but fewer than 300,000 people.

American Conquest of the Philippines (1899-1902): 220 000 [make link]

John Gates ("War-Related Deaths in the Philippines, 1898-1902", Pacific Historical Review 53:367 (1983)) estimates a demographic shortfall between 127,593 and 362,659. A 1902 cholera epidemic killed a recorded 137,505, so the absolute most that could have died in the war would be 225,154 (362659-137505). According to Gates: The most commonly cited number is 600,000, which is based on General Bell's 1901 comment that 1/6 of Luzon had died. There is, however, uncertainty over which "General Bell" said this, and how knowledgeable he would be. The second most commonly cited number is probably 200,000, which also has an uncertain origin, but was already in circulation by 1913. Sometimes you'll hear 3 million mentioned, but this originated as a typo in West Point: America's Power Fraternity. Because 3 million is so shocking, it has a tendency to stick in people's mind and get repeated (Compton's, under "Philippines", for example, gives the death toll as 1-3M). In any case, the passage was supposed to say 300,000. 200,000 civilians killed Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace (also FAS 2000) Combat US: 4,234 Filipino: 16,000 Filipino civilians: 200,000 of disease/famine Clodfelter US: 4,234 d, incl. 1,073 in combat Filipino battle: 16,000 Filipino civilians: 200,000 Leon Wolff Little Brown Brother (1961) p.360 US, battle: 4,234 Filipino, battle: 16,000 ("actually counted") to >20,000 ("true total") Filipino civilians: 200,000 of disease Encyclopedia Americana (2003), "Philippines": 200,000 civilians George C. Herring, From colony to superpower: U.S. foreign relations since 1776 (2008) p.329: "20,000 Filipinos killed in action and as many as 200,000 civilians killed from war-related causes." Philip Sheldon Foner, The Spanish-Cuban-American War and the Birth of American Imperialism (1972) p.626: "16000 Filipino soldiers were killed, and over 200,000 civilians died" Benjamin A. Valentino, Final solutions: mass killing and genocide in the twentieth century (2005) p.27: 200,000 civilians Stanley Karnow, In our image: America's empire in the Philippines (1989) p.12: "by its end in 1901, at least 200,000 Filipino civilians had been killed." Other Eckhardt: 8,000 civ. + 4,000 mil. = 12,000 Small & Singer: 4,500 USAns Irving Werstein, 1898: The Spanish American War: told with pictures (1966) p.124 US, battle: 5,000 Filipino, battle: 20,000 Filipino civilians: 250,000 Graff, American Imperialism and the Philippine Insurrection (1969) Filipino combatants: 16-20,000 Filipino non-combatants: 250,000 P. N. Abinales, et al., State and society in the Philippines (2005) p.117: "half a million civilians were killed between 1899 and 1902" Bartholomew H. Sparrow, "The Insular cases and the emergence of American empire" (2006) p.37: "About 600000 persons, or one-sixth of the population of the island of Luzon," died. Dennis Owen Flynn, et al., Studies in Pacific history: economics, politics, and migration (2002) p.215: an estimated 600000 noncombatant Filipino civilians, men, women, and children" died Renato Redentor Constantino, "The Colors of Memory", Mother Jones, Apr. 28, 2005: "the number of Filipinos killed or felled by disease as a result of America's occupation... around 600,000." Antonio T. Tiongson, et al., Positively no Filipinos allowed: building communities and discourse (Temple University Press, 2006) p.127: "million"

Colombia (1899-1902): 100 000

War of a Thousand Days: Britannica: 60-130,000 Encarta: 60-130,000 Small & Singer: 100,000 Dict.Wars: 100,000 Eckhardt: 75,000 civ. + 75,000 mil. = 150,000

Somalia, Mohammed Abdulla Hasan (1899-1920): 100 000

Mad Mullah Jihad According to the Library of Congress [http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/sotoc.html], this war caused the deaths of about one third of the northern Somali population. The 1911 Britannica estimates 300,000 people in British Somaliland, so the death toll might have been something like 100-150,000. (depending on whether the 300000 was estimated before or after the one-third had died) By summing the battle casualties in the campaigns that are descibed in the OnWar.com essay for the 1899-1905 phase of the war, I determined that the dervishes suffered some 11,700 casualties (K+W) fighting the British, which would come to around 3,000 KIA, plus another 1,000 killed in battle with the Abyssinians. The British lost something over 200 KIA.

Boxer Rebellion (1899-1901): 115 000

Rummel: War: 10,000 Democide: 105,000 TOTAL: 115,000 Hammond: In North China, 32,000 Chinese Christians killed, plus 200 missionaries. Small & Singer, battle deaths: China: 2000 Japan: 622 Russia: 302 UK: 34 France: 24 USA: 21 TOTAL: 3,003 Eckhardt: 13,000 civ. + 3,000 mil. = 16,000

Amazonia (1900-12): 250 000 [make link]

Rubber companies in Peru and Brazil, worker deaths Rummel: >250,000

French Colonies (1900-40) [make link]

Rummel Democidal deaths among forced laborers in all the French colonies: >200,000 Adam Hochschild, Leopold's Ghost, (1998) estimates a 50% population loss in the rain forest due to colonial brutality. Robert July (A History of the African People, 1974) reports a 1926 population estimate of 3.1M in all of FrEqAf. The 1946 Census found 25% of the FrEqAfan population (1054T/4131T) in Congo and Gabon, the forest territories. That indicates a 1926 forest population of 0.8M, and therefore, an earlier death toll of 800,000. Tom Conner Andre Gide's Politics : Rebellion and Ambivalence: The population of French Equatorial Africa declined from 15M (ca. 1900) to 9M (ca. 1914) to 2-3M (early 1920s) Worker deaths while building the Congo-Océan Railroad, French Equatorial Africa, 1921-32 Basil Davidson, Africa in History (1991): Official: 14,000 Coquéry-Vidrovitch: 20,000 Hochschild: 20,000

Russo-Japanese War (1904-05): 130 000 [make link]

Samuel Dumas, Losses of Life Caused By War (1923) Japanese: Citing Verluststatistik killed: 47,400 dead of wounds: 11,500 dead of disease: 27,200 TOTAL: 86,100 citing Japanese Bureau of Military Statistics killed: 47,152 died of wounds: 11,424 died of disease: 21,802 TOTAL: 80,378 Russian: Citing Verluststatistik killed: 28,800 died of wounds: 5,200 died of disease: 9,300 TOTAL: 43,300 citing Gaedke ("seems too large") killed and died of wounds: 52,623 died of disease: 18,830 TOTAL: 71,453 TOTAL (Verluststatistik): 129,400 Small & Singer Japanese: 85,000 Russian: 45,000 TOTAL: 130,000 Eckhardt: 130,000 Urlanis, both sides: Killed: 99,000 Disease: 40,000 TOTAL: 139,000 Gilbert Japanese: 58,000 Russian: 120,000 TOTAL: 178,000

Maji-Maji Revolt, German East Africa (1905-07): 175 000 [make link]

R. July, A History of the African People (1974): 70,000 Rudolf von Albertini, European Colonial Rule, 1880-1940: official estimate of 75,000 1911 Britannica: officially 120,000 men, women and children Eckhardt: 150,000 Dict.Wars: 200,000 Cambridge History of Africa: 200,000 total, 400 on the German side incl. 15 whites Robert Edgerton, The Fall of the Asante Empire: 250-300,000 T. Packenham, The Scramble for Africa (1991): 250-300,000

Libya (1911-31): 125 000 [make link]

Sanusi resistance to Italian rule: K. Shillington, History of Africa (1995): 100,000 civilians died in concentration camps. John Wright, Libya A Modern History (1982): Wright estimates that the native population fell by 125,000. He cites these additional sources: Muammar Gaddhafi claimed in 1969 that 750,000 Libyans (i.e. half the total population) died under the Italians. While administering the territory prior to independence, the UN estimated that 250,000 to 300,000 natives died between 1912 and 1942. Denis Mack Smith, Mussolini's Roman Empire (1976): 20,000 died in concentration camps, with perhaps 100,000 Bedouins (or half the Bedouin population) dying overall. Clodfelter: 40,000 d. in combat, both sides, 1923-31. 100,000 Senusi d. all causes. Eckhardt: Civil War w/ Italy (1911-17): 16,000 Italian conquest (1920-32): 40,000 Civil War w/ Italy (1930-32): 40,000 TOTAL: 96,000

Balkan Wars (1912-13): 140 000 [make link]

Singer, battle deaths [TOTAL: 142,500] First Balkan War (1912-13) Turkey: 30,000 Bulgaria: 32,000 Serbia: 15,000 Greece: 5,000 [TOTAL: 82,000] Second Balkan War (1913) Turkey: 20,000 Bulgaria: 18,000 Serbia: 19,000 Greece: 2,000 Romania: 2,000 [TOTAL: 60,500] Clodfelter [TOTAL: 129,500] First Balkan War (1912-13) Turkey: 30,000 Bulgaria: 32,000 Serbia: 15,000 Greece: 5,000 Montenegro: 3,000 [TOTAL: 85,000] Second Balkan War (1913) Bulgaria: 20,000 (53,825 died + killed in both wars, 60% from disease) Serbia: 18,500 Greece: 2,500 Turkey: 2,000 Romania: 1,500 [TOTAL: 44,500] Eckhardt 1st B.W.: 82,000 2nd B.W.: 61,000 [TOTAL: 143,000] Urlanis, all parties: KIA: 122,000 Disease: 82,000 Dead of wounds: 20,000 TOTAL: 224,000

Russo-Polish War (1918-1920): 100 000

Singer USSR: 60,000 Poland: 40,000 TOTAL: 100,000 Eckhardt: 100,000 Urlanis calculates 37,000 Poles KIA, and cites... Polish official commission: killed: 17,278 (Urlanis: "underestimation") dead: 30,337 missing: 51,374

Turkey (1925-28) [make link]

Kurdish uprising David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (1996) says that Kurdish "propaganda reports" claiming that 15,000 were massacred and that 200,000 deportees perished "may have been exaggerated". Dan Smith believes them: "Turkish troops crush Kurdish uprising killing 250,000."

Chaco War (1932-35): 100 000 [make link]

Dictionary of 20C World History Bolivia: 50,000 Paraguay: 35,000 TOTAL: 85,000 Bruce Farcau, The Chaco War (1991), deaths from all causes Bolivia: 50,000 Paraguay: 40,000 TOTAL: 90,000 Marley Bolivia: 57,000 Paraguay: 36,000 TOTAL: 93,000 Our Times: 100,000 Clodfelter Paraguay KIA: 12,000 Disease: 36,000 Bolivia: 52,397, incl... KIA: 25,000 Died as POWs: 4,264 [TOTAL: 100,397] Small & Singer Bolivia: 80,000 Paraguay: 50,000 TOTAL: 130,000 John Gunther, Inside Latin America: 135,000 Eckhardt: 70,000 civ. + 130,000 mil. = 200,000

Russo-Finnish War (1939-1940): 150 000 [make link]

COWP USSR: 50,000 Finland: 24,900 TOTAL: 74,900 Gilbert USSR: 58,000 Finland: 27,000 TOTAL: 85,000 Singer USSR: 50,000 Finland: 40,000 TOTAL: 90,000 Eckhardt: 90,000 Roger Reese, The Soviet Military Experience : A History of the Soviet Army, 1917-1991 Red Army: 126,875 killed and missing Clodfelter Finland: 23,157 KIA USSR according to Molotov: 48,745 KIA most others give 175-200,000 [TOTAL: ca. 200,000-225,000] Eloise Engle, The Winter War: The Soviet Attack on Finland 1939-1940 Finland: 25,000 Soviets: one million killed, according to Khrushchev [I'm adding Clodfelter's Finns to Reese's Soviets for my total.]

Greek Civil War (1943-49): 158 000 [make link]

Our Times: 50,000 Hartman, citing Jan.1951 Stratiokita, the Greek general staff weekly: Greek Army: 12,777 killed, 4527 missing Civilians executed by Communists: 4,289 Communists: 38,000 [TOTAL: 55,066, maybe 59,593] WPA3: 12,777 Greek soldiers; 38,000 Communists Howard Jones, "A New Kind of War" (1989) estimates 13,000 govt. dead or missing + 38,000 guerrillas, and cites ... Kousalas: 16,753 gov't dead Averoff-Tossizze: 36,839 guerillas counted, but probably 50,000 killed. O'Ballance: 158,000 total P. Johnson: 80,000 C. M. Woodhouse, The Struggle for Greece 70,000 dead on the gov't side, incl. 15,000 soldiers 38,000 rebels killed. 5,000 executions, both sides. TOTAL: 128,000 Urlanis: 148,000 Edgar O'Ballance, The Greek Civil War : 1944-1949 (1966): 158,000 dead, half Communist forces, half Govt and civilians. He also cites Greek govt figures for 6/1945-3/1949: Democratic Army (Comm.): 28,992 k. Greek Natl Army: 10,927 k + 3,756 missing Civilians: 3156 executed by DA and EPON + 731 k. by mines, etc. [TOTAL: 43,806 to 47,562] Clodfelter Greek National Army: 15,969 k. Greek Democratic Army: >50,000 k. TOTAL: 158,000 B&J: 158,000 T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996): 158,000 Singer: 160,000 Eckhardt: 160,000

Yugoslavia, Tito's Regime (1944-80): 200 000 [make link]

Killed by Communists shortly after coming to power Mark Mazower, Dark Continent: up to 60,000 9 July 1990 NY Times: 70-100,000 Anti-Communist emigres claim ca. 500,000 killed John Lampe, Yugoslavia as History: 100,000 Marcus Tanner, Croatia: a Nation Forged in War: est. for the number of returning POWs k. by Communists in the Bleiburg massacre range from 30,000 to 200,000 (The upper number being favored by Croat nationalists) Noel Malcolm, Bosnia: a Short History: 250,000 Rummel: 500,000 MEDIAN: 100,000-250,000 Rummel estimates 1,072,000 democides under Tito, but 500,000 of these are associated with the immediate aftermath of WW2. He estimates the death toll for the Communist regime after the war clouds settled (i.e. 1945-87) to be 572,000.

Colombia (1946-58): 200 000 [make link]

La Violencia Clodfelter Peasants: 85,144 k Other civilians: 39,856, incl. armed gangs Colombian military: 6,200 Police: 3,620 TOTAL, incl. died of wounds and disappeared: 180,000 (through 1958) + 20,000 (1959-62) Grenville: 200,000 Britannica: 200,000 Dictionary of 20C World History: 200,000 Hammond: 200,000 Eckhardt: 200,000 civ. + 100,000 mil. = 300,000 Singer: 300,000

Romania (1948-89): 150 000 [make link]

Communist Regime Rummel: 435,000 democides, 1948-87 Robert Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts (1993): 100,000 forced laborers died building the Danube-Black Sea Canal, 1949-53 This may be an exaggeration. Both Chirot (Modern Tyrants) and Mazower (Dark Continent) number the total living labor force on the Canal at 40,000. 24 Oct. 2000 AP: 100,000 peasants and prisoners perished in prison or building the canal. George Hodos, Show Trials (1987): 75,000 executed during 1st 4 years of Communism. 8 Jan. 1990 Time: A Romanian court found Ceausescu guilty of genocide, with 60,000 victims.

Burma/ Myanmar (1948 et seq.): 130 000 [make link]

All Civil Wars WHPSI: 5,598 deaths by pol. viol. (1948-77) Dan Smith, New State of War Atlas (1991): 20,000-40,000 killed by more than four decades of war. Rummel (1948-87) Parliamentary Republic, 1948-62: 20,000 (50% democidal) Socialist Republic, 1962-87: 107,000 (40% democidal) TOTAL: 127,000 B&J: 140,000 (1949-95) Clodfelter Estim. 1948-55: >28,000 violent d. Nov.1958-Apr.1960: 2278 rebels k. 1984 (typical?): 1870 rebels + 566 govt. k. [Calculation: That's 32,714 over some ten years. If we assume some 3,300 k/yr, that's 33,000/decade, and 165,000 by 1998. That's probably the max.] Govt. vs. Karens 1948-51: 8,000 (Singer; SIPRI 1997, Eckhardt) 1981-88: 5,000 to 8,500 (SIPRI 1997) 1949-2001: 100,000 civilian and rebel Karens (Globe and Mail, 9 Jan. 2001) Gov't vs. Communists (1980): 5,000 (Eckhardt) Gov't vs. KMT (1948-54): >1,000 (B&J)

East Germany (1949-89): 100 000

Communist Regime 27 Oct. 1991 LA Times: 100,000 died in captivity or were executed for political offenses in E.G. (citing an official report by the unified German govt.) 27 Oct 1991 Independent (London): 100,000 d., incl. 65,000 in or on way to post-war Soviet camps. Rummel: 70,000 democides, 1948-87 9 April 1990 UPI: 90,000 (acc. to Association for the Victims of Stalinism) or 56,000 (other sources) Germans k./d in Soviet detention camps after WW2. Mostly hunger. 23 June 1991 Chicago Tribune: 40,000 German political prisoners d. in Soviet-run camps after WW2 WHPSI: 6,162 political executions, 1948-52 12 Aug 2004 Agence France Presse: 1,065 died fleeing E. Germany; 227 died in Berlin, 190 after the construction of the Wall.

Guatemala (1960-1996): 200 000 [make link]

29 Dec. 1996 New York Times: 100,000 dead and 40,000 disappeared, presumed dead War Annual 8: ditto 5 Dec. 1996 Washington Post: ditto CDI: 140,000 dead Chomsky (1991) Total : 200,000 (1987) Murders: 150,000 Killed, 1966-68: 10,000 Killed, 1980-85: 50,000 Total, 1954-83 (27 Nov. 1983 NYTimes citing Guatamalan Human Rights Comm.): 40,000 disapp. + 95,000 deaths. Grenville: 35,000 disappearances Harff & Gurr: 30,000 to 63,000 Indians, leftists were victims of repressive genocide, 1966-84 Dict.Wars: 150,000 dead + 50,000 missing Commission for Historical Clarification [http://hrdata.aaas.org/ceh/report/english/conc1.html] 42,275 Victims of human rights violations, including... 23,671 arbitrary executions 6,159 forced disappearances Total number of persons killed or disappeared as a result of the conflict: over 200,000 (including the above) 29 April 1999 AP: 200,000

Congo Crisis (1960-64): 100 000

WHPSI: 14,003 deaths by political violence, 1958-67. Dan Smith (1997): 100,000 killed in 1960 war. Eckhardt: 100,000 Singer: 100,000, plus 50 Belgians (1960-67) B&J: 110,000 (1960-64) Dunnigan (1991): 100,000 to 110,000 Peter Forbath (The River Congo (1977)): at least 200,000

North Yemen (1962-70): 100 000

1984 World Almanac: 150,000 Singer: 100,000 (plus 1,000 Egyptians) Eckhardt: 101,000 B&J: 100,000 (incl. 1,000 Egyptians + 1,000 Saudis, 1962-67) 5 March 1991 AP: 70,000

Philippines (1972- )

Guerrilla Wars 29 Jan. 2003 Philippine Daily Inquirer: Killed in Communist rebellion, AFP Intelligence Service report: Government forces: 9,867 (1971-2002) Communist rebels: 22,799 (1971-2002) Civilians: 10,672 (crossfire, 1969-2002) Total: 43,338 1990 SIPRI: 50,000 (Moro insurrection, Mindinao: 1975-1986) 1992 War Annual: 50,000 B&J: 60,000, Mindinao, 1970-95 Eckhardt (1972-87) vs. Muslims: 20,000 civ. + 15,000 mil. = 35,000 vs. Communists: 20,000 civ. + 15,000 mil. = 35,000 TOTAL: 70,000 CDI: 75,000 (Govt. vs. New People's Army and National Liberation Front: 1969-97) Ploughshares 2000 Mindinao: 100,000-150,000 since 1971 vs. NPA: 25,000 since 1969 TOTAL: 150,000 ± 25,000 D.Smith (1991): 80,000 ("20 years") Dictionary of 20C World History: 120,000 (Moro insurrection, Mindinao: 1969-1996)

East Timor, Conquest by Indonesia (1975-99): 200 000 [make link]

Early: Compton's: 100,000 killed in the first year Encarta: 100,000 ditto D.Smith: 100,000 ditto 15 Sept. 1999 AP, for the first couple of years 1977 Indonesia's foreign minister: 50-80,000 1985 Amnesty International report: 200,000 (''pulled out of thin air,'' based on church census in 1974 and Indonesian census in the 1980s) Total: The Timor-Leste Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation (CAVR), Conflict-Related Deaths In Timor-Leste: 1974-1999 [http://www.cavr-timorleste.org/updateFiles/english/CONFLICT-RELATED%20DEATHS.pdf] Official estimate: The lowest possible number of conflict-related deaths: 102,800 (+/- 12,000). That includes 18,600 (+/- 1,000) killed or disappeared, plus 84,200 (+/- 11,000) excess hunger and illness. The commission speculated that the maximum number due to excess hunger and illness could have been 183,000 [The total range therefore: 90,800 to 202,600] Eckhardt: 90,000 civ. + 10,000 mil. = 100,000 (1975-87) Dunnigan: 90,000 to 200,000 Rummel: 150,000 (1975-87) CDI: 150,000 (1975-97) FAS 2000: as many as 60,000 in first assault; 100,000 to 250,000 as of 1979. B&J: 1975-76: 100,000 TOTAL: 200,000 [MEDIAN: 200,000] War Annual 6: 100,000 killed in the first year, and another 100,000 over the next decade or so. Ploughshares 2000: >200,000 Chomsky (1987): 200,000 to 300,000 by 1979 Dict.Wars: 250,000 Our Times: 300,000 Intensified violence, 1999 15 Sept. 1999 AP: "estimates range upwards wildly from 600" a Roman Catholic aid agency: 20,000 UN World Food Program: up to 7,000

Lebanon (1975-90): 150 000 [make link]

Killed in the first couple of years: 40,000 (P.Johnson), 60,000 (1984 World Almanac; Hartman; Compton's), 60,099 (WHPSI 1975-77) Total killed since the trouble began: Eckhardt 1975-76 Civil War: 75,000 civ. + 25,000 mil. = 100,000 1982-87 Israeli vs PLO: 40,000 civ. + 12,000 mil. = 62,000 TOTAL: 162,000 WPA3: 150,000 (1975-91) 14 Apr. 2000 LA Times: 150,000 14 Dec. 1985 Montreal Gazette: 150,000 (to 1985) 24 Dec. 1989 Arizona Republic: 150,000 [MEDIAN: ca. 150,000] 9 March 1992 AP: > 144,000 k, citing official police statistics Not incl. 6,630 "killed ... in related conflicts involving Palestinians", such as... Power struggles between rival factions of Palestinians: 2,000 deaths 3,781 killed in fighting between Shiite militia and PLO 857 Pal. & Leb. k. by Christian militia in Sabra and Chatila refugee camps in 1982. "17,415 people remain missing [and] are presumed dead" [I don't know if these were included or not.] Dict.Wars: 144,000 SIPRI 1990: 131,000 (to 1989) US State Dept.: >100,000 [http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5419.htm] War Annual 6: 100,000 (to 1983) CDI: 60,000 (1975-97) Shia Amal-PLO War (1985-87) 22 Nov. 1986 LA Times: >1,000 k. 11 Dec. 1986 NY Times: >1,500 k 9 March 1992 AP: 3,781 k Israeli Invasion 3 Sept. 1982 Washington Post Beirut newspaper An Nahar est. 17,825 k. during invasion Outside Beirut Military personnel: 9,797 (PLO, Syria, etc.) Civilians: 2,513 Beirut area: 5,515 (mil. + civ.) 14 October 1982 Christian Science Monitor Beirut massacre: 2,000 k. acc2 Lebanese govt. Throughout Lebanon An Nahar: 48,028 casualties, incl. 17,825 k. Palestine Red Crescent Society: 27,000 casualties (k+w) 5 March 1991 AP Israel: 657 k. Syrians: 370 PLO: 1,000 Lebanese and Palestinians: 19,000+, mostly civilians 14 Dec. 1985 Montreal Gazette: 650 Israelis k. (1981-84) 24 Dec. 1989 Arizona Republic: 654 Israelis Ploughshares 2000: 12,000 people, including 500 Israelis, killed during the 1978 and 1982 invasions of Lebanon Outsiders: 237 (Info. Please 1991), 239 (Gilbert) or 241 (Our Times) USAns, and 58 French (Our Times) killed in Oct. 1983 bombings. 9 March 1992 AP 241 USAns + 58 French (1983); plus 75 k at US Embassy (1983+84) US State Dept. April 1983, U.S. Embassy, W. Beirut: 63 k October 1983, US & Fr HQ: 298 k September 1984, US Embassy annex, E. Beirut: 9 k A total of 273 military USAns killed, 1982-84 according to House Res. 45,108th Conngress, 1st Session 1,000 Syrians KIA, 1976 (Singer)

Cambodian Civil War (1978-91): 225 000 [make link]

Eckhardt Vietnam vs Cambodia, 1978-87 14,000 civ. + 10,000 mil. = 24,000 CDI: >25,000 (possibly just refers to the substantiated Vietnamese losses) SIPRI 1996, (1979-89) Vietnamese battle dead: 25,300 Cambodian battle dead: >50,000 Wallechinsky: Cambodians: 200,000 Vietnamese: 25,300 Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995) Vietnamese: 25,300 Cambodians: 100,000 (1978-79) + 100,000 thereafter, not including deaths among refugees B&J: 500,000, incl. 50,000 Vietnamese Rummell: 1,160,000 deaths, 1979-87 War Dead: 60,000 Famine: 250,000 (non-democidal) Democide: 850,000 by Samrin: 230,000 by Vietnam: 460,000 by Khmer Rouge: 150,000 by others: 10,000

Kurdistan (1980s, 1990s): [make link]

In Iraq: 1987 War Annual: 300,000 (1983-87) Washington Post, 6 June 93: 70-120,000 (1987-89) David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (1996): 150-200,000 (Anfal operations, 1988) 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 280,000 (1961-1999), incl. 180,000 between 1976 and 1988, and 10,000 in 1991. HRW: Chemical attack on Halabja, 1988: 4,000 to 7000 civ. killed. 3,200 names collected. [http://hrw.org/reports/1993/iraqanfal/ANFAL3.htm] Ploughshares 2000 Total 1961-2000: >100,000 Fighting among rival Kurds since 1994: 5,000 k Anfal operations US State Dept.: 70-150,000 Human Rights Watch: 50-100,000 B&J: 1974-75: 3,000 1976-95: 60,000 TOTAL: 63,000 857 cartons of detailed files kept by the Iraqi secret police describing genocide against the Kurds emerged in 1991-92. Time 1 June 1992: 200,000 to 300,000 killed (late 80s) AP 7 Dec. 1991: 200,000 k (1986-1991) Chicago Tribune 26 May 1992: 200,000 to 300,000 (1988-91) In Iran: Under Islamic Republic, 1979 to Feb. 1981: 10,000 (David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (1996)) 1979-89: 17,000 (SIPRI 1990) 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 17,000, incl. 10,000 military (1979-99) 1980-90: 50,000 (1990 War Annual 4) In Turkey: 4 April 95 Washington Post: 15,000 (1985-95) B&J: 18,000 (1984-95) Ploughshares 2000: 30-40,000 29 April 1999 AP: 37,000 (1984-99) 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 40,000 (1984-99) TOTAL: Adding the numbers above puts the total in the 200 to 400 thousand range. OTOH, the CDI estimates a total of 120,000 deaths between 1961 and 1997 in Iran, Turkey and Iraq. (see also Iraq, 1961-70)

Liberia (1989-2003): 250 000 [make link]

Govt v National Patriotic Front (1st Civil War: 1989-1997): Edgerton: 100,000 D. Smith: 150,000 "in 1990 alone" CDI: 150,000 (1990-97) B&J: 150,000 (1989-95) Berkeley, The Graves Are Not Yet Full (2001): as many as 150,000 murdered Chicago Tribune (17 Apr. 1996): 150,000 Time (28 July 1997): as many as 200,000 War Annual 8 (1997): 200,000 LURD and MODEL insurrections (2nd Civil War: 1999-2003) Lydia Polgreen, "A Master Plan Drawn in Blood", NY Times, April 2, 2006: 300,000 Combined 14-year civil war: Boston Globe (29 March 2003): 200,000 22 July 2003 The Times (London): 200,000 Truth and Reconciliation Committee, Volume 1: Preliminary Findings and Determinations, p.44 [https://www.trcofliberia.org/reports/final/volume-one_layout-1.pdf]: 250,000 dead

Algeria (1992-2002): 100 000

Fundamentalist Moslem Insurrection, govt. vs. FIS and GIA: CDI: 75,000 (1992-97) Washington Post, 13 Jan. 1998: 75,000 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 80,000 Dict.Wars (1999): 70,000 Ploughshares 2000: 100,000 New York Times: 60-70,000 (15 Jan. 1998); 100,000 (27 Jan. 2000) 26 June 2003 Agence France Presse: 100,000+ 8 April 2004 Guardian: up to 150,000

Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-95): 175 000 [make link]

Total U.S. State Dept.: 250,000 (Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1996 [http://www.state.gov/www/global/human_rights/1996_hrp_report/bosniahe.html]) 29 April 1999 AP: 250,000 Compton's Encyclopedia: 200,000 6 April 2002 Times [London]: 200,000, incl... D. in siege of Sarajevo: 15,000 Massacred in Srebrenica: 8,000 MEDIAN: ca. 175,000 International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights: more than 160,000 (Annual Report 1997 [http://www.ihf-hr.org/ar97bos.htm]) Dan Smith (The State of War and Peace Atlas 1997) uses the Bosnian War as the example of how difficult it is to estimate accurate death tolls, but in the end, he settles for 150,000. B&J: >60,000 George Kenney, The Bosnia Calculation (NY Times Magazine, 23 April 1995): 25,000 to 60,000 ([http://suc.suc.org/politics/myth/articles/042395.George_Kenney.html]) Srebrenica 6 July 2000 LA Times: 4,700 bodies exhumed Internat. Red Cross estimates total of 7,079 k. Amal Masovic's B-H govt. commission: 8,400

Zaire (Dem. Rep. Congo), Civil War (1997) [make link]

CDI: 250,000 (In the table, this is given as the number of deaths, but in the text, the number is described as an uninvestigated "disappearance".) 20 Feb. 1998 Agence France Presse: 200,000 refugees "unaccounted for", according to UN. Donald G. McNeil, “In Congo, Forbidding Terrain Hides a Calamity”, June 1, 1997, New York Times: out of 1.4 M Rwandan refugees in Zaire ... 700,000 fled east when the war began. 400,000 fled west, of which ... 125,000 eventually returned to Rwanda 53,000 remained in Zaire 222,000 disappeared. Amnesty International, 23 Nov. 1998: "as many as" 200,000 Rwandese Hutu refugees massacred by AFDL and RPA. ([http://www.amnesty.org/ailib/aipub/1998/AFR/16203698.htm]) Howard W. French,  “Kagame's Hidden War in the Congo”, September 24, 2009, New York Review of Books [http://www.nybooks.com/articles/23054]: 300,000, citing Prunier, Africa's World War

source: http://necrometrics.com/20c100k.htm

Matt 24: End Time Signs: "And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars"

I have heard it oft quoted that there were more wars in the last century than in all the other centuries put together. I have looked for statistics, which are a bit difficult to find. I do know however that war is being escalated at a horrific rate the past fifteen years or so in particular. Here is a list from 4th century to 2006. You fill in the gaps from there; it's horrific.

1. Greek Wars, 5th and 4th Centuries BCE
   • Democracies: City-states such as Athens, Syracuse et. al.
   • Rebuttal: Citizenship was limited to an elite minority which excluded women, slaves, foreigners, etc.
   • Counter-rebuttal: Among the citizenry, all voices were equal.
   • Quote: From The Wars of the Ancient Greeks by V. D. Hanson: "[D]emocratic practices abroad meant nothing at home when it was a question of Athenian self-interest -- the Assembly might ...readily fight to exterminate democracies like Syracuse (415-413).... Athenians ... fought for two years against [Syracuse,] the only other large democracy in the Greek World."
2. Punic Wars, 2nd and 3rd Centuries BCE
   • Democracies: Rome vs. Carthage.
   • Rebuttal, Counter-rebuttal: Same as for the Greek democracies.
3. American Revolution, 1775-1783
   • Democracies: United States vs. Great Britain
   • Rebuttal: On the one hand, Great Britain was more liberal than most monarchies and it had a reasonably independent parliament, but on the the other hand, the franchise was quite restricted until the Reform Bill of 1832. Also, the United States was run by a provisional coalition during the war, and the country did not become a working democracy until after independence.
   • Counter-rebuttal: One of the most frequently stated goals of the American rebels was that they were entitled to enjoy all the civil rights quaranteed to native-born Englishmen (e.g. parliamentary representation, due process of law), but denied to the colonists. This certainly sounds like the Americans themselves recognized England as a model for their own democratic hopes.
4. American Indian Wars, 1776-1890
   • Democracies: United States vs. various Native American Indian tribes.
   • Rebuttal: The tribes did not have enough formal structure to be considered real democracies.
   • Counter-rebuttal: Well, just for starters, the Iroqouian Confederation was rather complex.
5. French Revolutionary Wars, 1793-1799
   • Democracies: France vs. Great Britain, Switzerland, the Netherlands
   • Rebuttal: For Britain, see the comments for 1775. Also, France at this time was lurching left and right, with bloody purges each time, so it hardly qualifies as a stable democracy.
   • Counter-rebuttal: Under the Directory, 1795-99, France was a relatively stable republic.
6. Franco-American Naval War, 1797-1799
   • Democracies: United States vs. France
   • Rebuttal: It was a Quasi War, for God's sake; even historians call it that. It was little more than a trade war with sporadic ritualized broadsides.
   • Counter-rebuttal: According to official Navy statistics (http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq56-1.htm), the US lost 20 sailors and marines in the Quasi War. Relative to the numbers involved, it was bloodier than the Gulf War.
7. Anglo-American War, 1812-1815
   • Democracies: United States vs. Great Britain
   • Rebuttal: For Britain, use the same two hands as with the 1st Anglo-American War of 1775.
8. Franco-Roman War, 1849
   • Democracies: France vs. the Roman Republic.
   • Rebuttal: Both democratic regimes were less than a year old, and therefore don't count as stable democracies.
   • Counter-rebuttal: C'mon, that's just cheating. You're redefining your terms in order to exclude an awkward exception.
9. American Civil War, 1861-65
   • Democracies: United States vs. Confederate States
   • Rebuttal: The Confederacy was a slave-holding nation and therefore definitely not a democracy -- and while we're at it, the same could be said for the Union as well. Also, "[t]he South was not a sovereign democracy at that time... President Jefferson Davis was not elected, but appointed by representatives selected by confederate states. There was an election in 1861, but it was not competitive." [Rummel]
   • Counterrebuttal: Both nations used almost identical Constitutions, which were easily the most democratic in the world at the time. Both nations conducted state and congressional elections on schedule, despite the difficulties of wartime. They both allowed substantial dissent within their Congresses, even if the opposition in the South never quite formalized into a two party sytem. Every major policy decision in both nations was enacted and approved by elected officials. (And since when is being "appointed by representatives selected by [individual] states" undemocratic? Technically, that's how every American president has been chosen.)
10. Occupation of Veracruz, 1861-62
    • Democracies: Great Britain vs. Mexico
    • Rebuttal: Yes, democratic Britain assisted France and Spain in seizing Veracruz from democratic Mexico (Juarez had been properly elected.), but this was achieved without fighting. As soon as their French allies geared up for military conquest of the whole country, the British pulled out.
    • Counterrebuttal: An invasion is war, even if the defenders don't fight back.
11. Spanish-American War, 1898
    • Democracies: United States vs. Spain
    • Rebuttal: In Spain, "the two major political parties alternated in power, not by election but by arrangement preceding elections." [Rummel]
    • Counterrebuttal: It's hardly unknown for rival parties in a democracy to make a time-sharing agreement or grand coalition. In one form or another, it has happened in Austria (1955-66), Columbia (1958-74), Switzerland (from 1959), UK (1931-45). More importantly, when Spain lost the war, prime minister Sagasta resigned, and national leadership passed to his parliamentary opponents, exactly the same as we would expect in any other constitutional monarchy.
12. Anglo-Boer War, 1899-1901
    • Democracies: Great Britain vs. Transvaal and the Orange Free State
    • Rebuttal: The franchise in the Boer Republics was limited to the white male elite.
13. First World War, 1914-18
    • Democracies: France, Belgium, Great Britain, the USA, et. al. vs. Germany.
    • Rebuttal: Well, yes, the Imperial Reichtag was democratically elected by universal manhood suffrage, but it was a largely powerless body, like the UN. The real power in the German federation was in the hands of the Emperor who appointed the Chancellor and commanded the Army, and in the hands of the Junkers running the undemocratic parliament of the Kingdom of Prussia, which made up around half the federation.
    • Counterrebuttal: Sure, there were aristocratic privileges and traditions that were inconsistent with one-man-one-vote and full equality under the law, but Germany was every bit as democratic as the United Kingdom (cf. the House of Lords and English dominance over the indigenous peoples of Scotland, Ireland and Wales.) And the Reichtag controlled the budget, which is not exactly "powerless".
14. Occupation of the Ruhr, 1923
    • Democracies: France vs. Germany.
    • Rebuttal: Germany didn't fight back.
    • Counterrebuttal: The same counterrebuttal as with the 1861 occupation of Veracruz.
15. Second World War, 1940-45
    • Democracies: Great Britain, United States, et al. vs. Finland.
    • Rebuttal: Finland fought on the same side as the Nazis against the Soviet Union, not against the democratic Allies.
    • Counterrebuttal: Well, the British bombed Finland; that sounds like being at war. And 69 Finnish merchants ships were sunk outside of the Baltic Sea. [n.9] Also, every Finnish soldier fighting the USSR meant that one German soldier could be sent west to fight the Allies. Every Russian soldier killed by the Finns weakened the Allied war effort.
16. First Indo-Pak War, 1947-49
    • Democracies: India vs. Pakistan.
    • Rebuttal: These regimes hadn't been around long enough to qualify as a stable democracies.
17. Iran, Guatemala and Chile, 1953, 1954 and 1973 respectively.
    • Democracies: United-States-backed coups in Iran, Guatemala and Chile.
    • Rebuttals: It's not certain how deeply the CIA was involved in overthrowing these democratically elected governments, but even if it was in up to its neck, these were coups and not wars. Covert operations by shadowy, bureaucratic elites are not democratic. They are not publicly debated and approved beforehand by the citizenry.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Technically, every military operation in the modern world is enacted by secretive bureacracies without public debate. (Was D-Day put to a vote?) If using the CIA is undemocratic, then so is using the Army; and if using the Army is undemocratic, then democracies can't fight wars, period. QED.
18. Lebanese Civil War, 1978, 1982
    • Democracies: Israel vs. Lebanon.
    • Rebuttal: Lebanon hardly counts as a stable democracy.
19. Croatian War of Independence, 1991-92
    • Democracies: Croatia vs. Yugoslavia.
    • Rebuttal: These regimes hadn't been around long enough to qualify as a stable democracies.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Even so, both nations had government that had been put in place through free elections. Even Weart admits that.
20. Border War, 1995
    • Democracies: Ecuador vs. Peru.
    • Rebuttal: President Fujimori of Peru had suspended the constitution in 1992, making himself a virtual dictator.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Just as virtual reality isn't reality, so a virtual dictator isn't a dictator. It is usually considered legal for a democratic leader to exercise emergency powers in an emergency, isn't it? Also, when Fujimori lost parliamentary support in 2000, he quit/was fired. Isn't the peaceful surrender of power one of the major tests of true democracy? [see also the 1898 Spanish-American War and the 1999 Kosovo War for similar applications of this test.]
21. Kosovo War, 1999
    • Democracies: The countries of NATO vs. Yugoslavia.
    • Rebuttal: Milosovic was a dictator.
    • Counter-rebuttal: In the legislative elections of Nov. 1996, Milosovic's supporters won a mere 64 out of 138 seats in parliament, and control of government probably would have gone to the opposition had not infighting and internal divisions prevented them from claiming their place at the helm. In 1997, Milosovic was re-elected president by a plausible margin of 59% to 38% [n.1] which suggests that these elections were not entirely rigged either. In October 2000, a soundly beaten Milosovic actually conceded defeat after an apparently free presidential election. Sure it took a week or so of prodding to get him to vacate the presidential palace, but a concession is a concession nonetheless. (and he gave in quicker than Al Gore.)
22. Fourth Indo-Pak War (Kargil War) 1999
    • Democracies: India vs. Pakistan.
    • Rebuttal: Those weren't Pakistanis. They were independent, volunteer guerrilla forces operating out of Pakistan, not regular troops.
    • Counter-Rebuttal: A technicality, at best. A cover story at worst. According to CNN [n.2], the insurgents were stiffened by Pakistani regulars, and supported by Pakistani artillery firing over the border into the neighboring democracy of India. The nations' air forces raided back and forth regularly.
    • Bad Rebuttal: And Pakistan wasn't even a democracy anyway. I seem to recall that they had a military coup sometime around then
    • Counter-Rebuttal in the form of a brief summary of a rather obscure war: That came later. The Pakistanis were driven back to the de facto international border on 17 July after two months of war. The civilian Prime Minister was deposed in October. The 2-month death toll was 1100, according to CNN.
23. Israel-Lebanon War 2006
    • Democracies: Israel vs. Lebanon
    • Rebuttal: Lebanon is hardly a democracy.
    • Counter-Rebuttal: "A 100-member European Union (EU) delegation monitored voter registration, campaigns, and voting, and approved the [2005] election as free of foreign influence and fair" (Council on Foreign Relations)

list source: http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/demowar.htm

Matt 24: End Time Signs: Take heed that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many.

Take heed that no one deceives you. ⁵ For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many.

How many have come?  Here's what two web sites have to say:

List of False Christs (cults)

posted by Dylan, 07.10.2007
(edited by Dylan on 07.10.2007)

1. John Nichols Thom
2. Ayya Valkundar
3. Klaus Kinski
4. Maria Devi Christos
5. Dore Williamson
6. Jim Jones
7. Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh
8. Michael Travesser
9. Mitsuo Matayoshi
10. Marshall Applewhite
11. Suma Ching Hai
12. Sergey Antoyevitch Torop
13. Grigory Petrovich Grabovoy
14. Jung Myung Scok
15. Suh Myung Moon
16. Maitreya Bodhisattua
17. Jose Luis De Jesus Miranda
18. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad
19. Mohammadi Begum
20. Joseph C. Dylkes
21. "Father Divine"
22. Hogen Fukunaga
23. Abu Isa
24. David Koresh
25. Krishna Venta
26. Charles Manson
27. Hakeem Noor-ud-Din
28. Solomon Molcho
29. Cyrus Teed
30. Yahweh ben Yahweh

source: http://prorege-forum.com/forum_entry.php?id=3982&page=9&category=all&order=time

Nineteenth century

Bahá'u'lláh

• John Nichols Thom (1799–1838), Cornish tax rebel who claimed to be the "saviour of the world" and the reincarnation of Jesus Christ and his body temple of the Holy Ghost^{[citation needed]} in 1834. He was killed by British soldiers at the Battle of Bossenden Wood, on May 31, 1838 in Kent, England.^[1]
• Arnold Potter (1804–1872), Schismatic Latter Day Saint leader; he claimed the spirit of Jesus Christ entered into his body and he became "Potter Christ" Son of the living God, he died in an attempt to "ascend into heaven" by jumping off a cliff.^{[citation needed]} His body was later retrieved and buried by his followers.^{[citation needed]}
• Bahá'u'lláh (1817–1892), born Shiite, adopted Bábism later in 1844,^[2] he claimed to be the prophetic fulfilment and promised one of all major religions and founded the Bahá'í Faith in 1866.^[3] Followers of the Bahá'í Faith believe that the fulfillment of the prophecies of the second coming of Jesus, as well as the prophecies of the 5th Buddha Maitreya and many other religious prophecies, were begun by the Báb in 1844 and then by Bahá'u'lláh. They commonly compare the fulfillment of Christian prophecies to Jesus' fulfillment of Jewish prophecies, where in both cases people were expecting the literal fulfillment of apocalyptic statements.^[4]
• William W. Davies (1833–1906), leader of a Latter Day Saint schismatic group called the Kingdom of Heaven located in Walla Walla, Washington from 1867 to 1881. He taught his followers that he was the archangel Michael, who had previously lived lives as the biblical Adam, Abraham, and David. When his son Arthur was born on 11 February 1868, Davies declared that the infant was the reincarnated Jesus Christ. When Davies's second son, David, was born in 1869, he was declared to be God the Father.^{[citation needed]}
• Mirza Ghulam Ahmad of Qadian, India (1835–1908), claimed to be the awaited Mahdi as well as (Second Coming) and likeness of Jesus the promised Messiah at the end of time, being the only person in Islamic history who claimed to be both.^{[citation needed]} He claimed to be Jesus in the metaphorical sense; in character. He founded the Ahmadiyya Movement in 1889 envisioning it to be the rejuvenation of Islam, and claimed to be commissioned by God for the reformation of mankind.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Twentieth century

Haile Selassie I

• Haile Selassie I (1892–1975), the Rastafari movement which emerged in Jamaica during the 1930s believes he is the Second Coming (although he himself did not encourage this belief). He embodied this when he became Emperor of Ethiopia in 1930, perceived as confirmation of the return of the Messiah in the prophetic Book of Revelation 5:5 in the New Testament but is also expected to return a second time to initiate the apocalyptic day of judgment. He is also called Jah Ras Tafari, and is often considered to be alive by Rastafari movement members.^[5]
• George Ernest Roux (1903–1981), called the "Christ of Montfavet" or "Georges-Christ",^[6] founder of the Universal Christian Church (now named the Universal Alliance) in France, claimed to be Jesus, then God. He presented himself as a persecuted prophet to carry out the law of love unfulfilled by God's representatives, including Jesus.^[7]
• Ernest Norman (1904–1971), an American electrical engineer who co-founded the Unarius Academy of Science in 1954, was allegedly Jesus in a past life and his earthly incarnation was as an archangel named Raphiel.^[8] He claimed to be the reincarnation of other notable figures including Confucius, Mona Lisa, Benjamin Franklin, Socrates, Queen Elizabeth I, and Tsar Peter I the Great.^[9]

Krishna Venta

• Krishna Venta (1911-1958), born Francis Herman Pencovic in San Francisco, founded the WKFL (Wisdom, Knowledge, Faith and Love) Fountain of the World cult in Simi Valley, California in the late 1940s. In 1948 he stated that he was Christ, the new messiah and claimed to have led a convoy of rocket ships to Earth from the extinct planet Neophrates. He died on 10 December 1958 after being suicide bombed by two disgruntled former followers who accused Venta of mishandling cult funds and having been intimate with their wives.
• Ahn Sahng-Hong (1918–1985), a South Korean who founded the World Mission Society Church of God in 1964, who consider him the Second Coming of Jesus. The church believes that his wife Zahng Gil-Jah is "God the Mother," who they believe is referred to in the Bible as the New Jerusalem Mother (Galatians 4:26, and that Ahn Sahng-Hong is God the Father^[10]

Sun Myung Moon

• Sun Myung Moon (1920–), believed by members of the Unification Church to be the Messiah and the Second Coming of Christ, fulfilling Jesus' unfinished mission.^[11][12]
• Jim Jones (1931–1978), founder of Peoples Temple, which started off as an offshoot of a mainstream protestant sect before becoming a personality cult as time went on. He claimed to be the reincarnation of Jesus, Akhenaten, Buddha, Vladimir Lenin, and Father Divine in the 1970s. ^[13] Organized a mass murder suicide at Jonestown, Guyana on 18 November 1978.^[14]
• Marshall Applewhite (1931–1997), an American who posted a famous Usenet message declaring, "I, Jesus—Son of God—acknowledge on this date of September 25/26, 1995: ..."^[15] This was two years before he and his Heaven's Gate cult committed mass suicide to rendezvous with a spaceship hiding behind the comet Hale-Bopp in 1997.^[16]
• Yahweh ben Yahweh (1935–2007), born as Hulon Mitchell, Jr., a black nationalist and separatist who created the Nation of Yahweh in 1979 in Liberty City, Florida. His self-proclaimed name means "God, Son of God." He could have only been deeming himself to be "son of God", not God, but many of his followers clearly deem him to be God Incarnate.^[17][18] In 1992, he was convicted of conspiracy to commit murder and sentenced to 18 years in prison.^[19]
• Laszlo Toth (1940-), Hungarian-born Australian who claimed he was Jesus Christ as he vandalised Michelangelo's Pietà with a geologist hammer in 1972.^[20][21]
• Wayne Bent (1941-), also known as Michael Travesser of the Lord Our Righteousness Church. He claims; "I am the embodiment of God. I am divinity and humanity combined."^[22] He was convicted on 15 December 2008 of one count of criminal sexual contact of a minor and two counts of contributing to the delinquency of a minor in 2008.^[23]
• Ariffin Mohammed (1943-), also known as "Ayah Pin", the founder of the banned Sky Kingdom in Malaysia in 1975. He claims to have direct contact with the heavens and is believed by his followers to be the incarnation of Jesus, as well as Shiva, and Buddha, and Muhammad.^[24]
• Mitsuo Matayoshi (1944-), a conservative Japanese politician, who in 1997 established the World Economic Community Party based on his conviction that he is God and Christ, renaming himself Iesu Matayoshi. According to his program he will do the Last Judgment as Christ but within the current political system.^[25][26]
• José Luis de Jesús Miranda (1946-), Puerto Rican founder, leader and organizer of Growing in Grace based in Miami, Florida, who claims that the resurrected Christ "integrated himself within me" in 2007.^[27]
• Inri Cristo (1948-), a Brazilian astrologer who claims to be the second Jesus reincarnated in 1969,^[28] Brasília is considered by Inri Cristo and his disciples as the “New Jerusalem” of the Apocalypse.
• Thomas Harrison Provenzano^[29] (1949–2000), an American convicted murderer who was possibly mentally ill. He compared his execution with Jesus Christ's crucifixion.^[30]
• Shoko Asahara (1955-), founded the controversial Japanese religious group Aum Shinrikyo in 1984. He declared himself "Christ", Japan's only fully enlightened master and the "Lamb of God". His purported mission was to take upon himself the sins of the world. He outlined a doomsday prophecy, which included a Third World War, and described a final conflict culminating in a nuclear "Armageddon", borrowing the term from the Book of Revelation 16:16.^[31] Humanity would end, except for the elite few who joined Aum.^[31] The group gained international notoriety in 20 March 1995, when it carried out the Sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway. He has been sentenced to death, and is awaiting execution.
• David Koresh (1959–1993), born Vernon Wayne Howell, was the leader of a Branch Davidian religious sect in Waco, Texas, though never directly claiming to be Jesus himself, proclaimed that he was the final prophet and "the Son of God, the Lamb" in 1983. In 1993, a raid by the U.S. BATF, and the subsequent siege by the FBI ended with Branch Davidian ranch burning to the ground. Koresh, 54 adults and 21 children were found dead after the fire extinguished itself.^[32]
• Hogen Fukunaga founded Ho No Hana Sanpogyo often called the "foot reading cult," in 1987 after an alleged spiritual event where he claimed to have realized he was the reincarnation of Jesus Christ and the Buddha.^[33]
• Marina Tsvigun (1960-), or Maria Devi Christos, is the leader of the Great White Brotherhood.^[34] In 1990 she met Yuri Krivonogov, the "Great White Brotherhood" founder, who recognized Marina as a new messiah and later married her, assuming in the sect the role of "John the Baptist", subordinate to Tsvigun.
• David Shayler (1965 -) In the summer of 2007, former MI5 agent and whistleblower proclaimed himself to be the Messiah. He has released a series of videos on Youtube claiming to be Jesus, although has not built up any noticeable following since his claims. ^{[35] [36] [37]}
• Sergei Torop (1961-), a Russian who claims to be "reborn" as Vissarion, Jesus Christ returned, which makes him not "God" but the "word of God." He founded the Church of the Last Testament and the spiritual community Ecopolis Tiberkul in Southern Siberia in 1990.^[38][39]

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_who_have_claimed_to_be_Jesus