Tuesday, June 28, 2011

End Time SIgns: Mid-Range Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century

20th Century death tolls larger than 100,000 but fewer than 300,000 people.
American Conquest of the Philippines (1899-1902): 220 000 [make link]
  • John Gates ("War-Related Deaths in the Philippines, 1898-1902", Pacific Historical Review 53:367 (1983)) estimates a demographic shortfall between 127,593 and 362,659. A 1902 cholera epidemic killed a recorded 137,505, so the absolute most that could have died in the war would be 225,154 (362659-137505).
    • According to Gates: The most commonly cited number is 600,000, which is based on General Bell's 1901 comment that 1/6 of Luzon had died. There is, however, uncertainty over which "General Bell" said this, and how knowledgeable he would be.
    • The second most commonly cited number is probably 200,000, which also has an uncertain origin, but was already in circulation by 1913.
    • Sometimes you'll hear 3 million mentioned, but this originated as a typo in West Point: America's Power Fraternity. Because 3 million is so shocking, it has a tendency to stick in people's mind and get repeated (Compton's, under "Philippines", for example, gives the death toll as 1-3M). In any case, the passage was supposed to say 300,000.
  • 200,000 civilians killed
    • Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace (also FAS 2000)
      • Combat
        • US: 4,234
        • Filipino: 16,000
      • Filipino civilians: 200,000 of disease/famine
    • Clodfelter
      • US: 4,234 d, incl. 1,073 in combat
      • Filipino battle: 16,000
      • Filipino civilians: 200,000
    • Leon Wolff Little Brown Brother (1961) p.360
      • US, battle: 4,234
      • Filipino, battle: 16,000 ("actually counted") to >20,000 ("true total")
      • Filipino civilians: 200,000 of disease
    • Encyclopedia Americana (2003), "Philippines": 200,000 civilians
    • George C. Herring, From colony to superpower: U.S. foreign relations since 1776 (2008) p.329: "20,000 Filipinos killed in action and as many as 200,000 civilians killed from war-related causes."
    • Philip Sheldon Foner, The Spanish-Cuban-American War and the Birth of American Imperialism (1972) p.626: "16000 Filipino soldiers were killed, and over 200,000 civilians died"
    • Benjamin A. Valentino, Final solutions: mass killing and genocide in the twentieth century (2005) p.27: 200,000 civilians
    • Stanley Karnow, In our image: America's empire in the Philippines (1989) p.12: "by its end in 1901, at least 200,000 Filipino civilians had been killed."
  • Other
    • Eckhardt: 8,000 civ. + 4,000 mil. = 12,000
    • Small & Singer: 4,500 USAns
    • Irving Werstein, 1898: The Spanish American War: told with pictures (1966) p.124
      • US, battle: 5,000
      • Filipino, battle: 20,000
      • Filipino civilians: 250,000
    • Graff, American Imperialism and the Philippine Insurrection (1969)
      • Filipino combatants: 16-20,000
      • Filipino non-combatants: 250,000
    • P. N. Abinales, et al., State and society in the Philippines (2005) p.117: "half a million civilians were killed between 1899 and 1902"
    • Bartholomew H. Sparrow, "The Insular cases and the emergence of American empire" (2006) p.37: "About 600000 persons, or one-sixth of the population of the island of Luzon," died.
    • Dennis Owen Flynn, et al., Studies in Pacific history: economics, politics, and migration (2002) p.215: an estimated 600000 noncombatant Filipino civilians, men, women, and children" died
    • Renato Redentor Constantino, "The Colors of Memory", Mother Jones, Apr. 28, 2005: "the number of Filipinos killed or felled by disease as a result of America's occupation... around 600,000."
    • Antonio T. Tiongson, et al., Positively no Filipinos allowed: building communities and discourse (Temple University Press, 2006) p.127: "million"
Colombia (1899-1902): 100 000
  • War of a Thousand Days:
    • Britannica: 60-130,000
    • Encarta: 60-130,000
    • Small & Singer: 100,000
    • Dict.Wars: 100,000
    • Eckhardt: 75,000 civ. + 75,000 mil. = 150,000
Somalia, Mohammed Abdulla Hasan (1899-1920): 100 000
Mad Mullah Jihad
  • According to the Library of Congress [http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/sotoc.html], this war caused the deaths of about one third of the northern Somali population. The 1911 Britannica estimates 300,000 people in British Somaliland, so the death toll might have been something like 100-150,000. (depending on whether the 300000 was estimated before or after the one-third had died)
  • By summing the battle casualties in the campaigns that are descibed in the OnWar.com essay for the 1899-1905 phase of the war, I determined that the dervishes suffered some 11,700 casualties (K+W) fighting the British, which would come to around 3,000 KIA, plus another 1,000 killed in battle with the Abyssinians. The British lost something over 200 KIA.
Boxer Rebellion (1899-1901): 115 000
  • Rummel:
    • War: 10,000
    • Democide: 105,000
    • TOTAL: 115,000
  • Hammond: In North China, 32,000 Chinese Christians killed, plus 200 missionaries.
  • Small & Singer, battle deaths:
    • China: 2000
    • Japan: 622
    • Russia: 302
    • UK: 34
    • France: 24
    • USA: 21
    • TOTAL: 3,003
  • Eckhardt: 13,000 civ. + 3,000 mil. = 16,000
Amazonia (1900-12): 250 000 [make link]
  • Rubber companies in Peru and Brazil, worker deaths
    • Rummel: >250,000
French Colonies (1900-40) [make link]
  • Rummel
    • Democidal deaths among forced laborers in all the French colonies: >200,000
  • Adam Hochschild, Leopold's Ghost, (1998) estimates a 50% population loss in the rain forest due to colonial brutality. Robert July (A History of the African People, 1974) reports a 1926 population estimate of 3.1M in all of FrEqAf. The 1946 Census found 25% of the FrEqAfan population (1054T/4131T) in Congo and Gabon, the forest territories. That indicates a 1926 forest population of 0.8M, and therefore, an earlier death toll of 800,000.
  • Tom Conner Andre Gide's Politics : Rebellion and Ambivalence: The population of French Equatorial Africa declined from 15M (ca. 1900) to 9M (ca. 1914) to 2-3M (early 1920s)
  • Worker deaths while building the Congo-Océan Railroad, French Equatorial Africa, 1921-32
    • Basil Davidson, Africa in History (1991):
      • Official: 14,000
      • Coquéry-Vidrovitch: 20,000
    • Hochschild: 20,000
Russo-Japanese War (1904-05): 130 000 [make link]
  • Samuel Dumas, Losses of Life Caused By War (1923)
    • Japanese:
      • Citing Verluststatistik
        • killed: 47,400
        • dead of wounds: 11,500
        • dead of disease: 27,200
        • TOTAL: 86,100
      • citing Japanese Bureau of Military Statistics
        • killed: 47,152
        • died of wounds: 11,424
        • died of disease: 21,802
        • TOTAL: 80,378
    • Russian:
      • Citing Verluststatistik
        • killed: 28,800
        • died of wounds: 5,200
        • died of disease: 9,300
        • TOTAL: 43,300
      • citing Gaedke ("seems too large")
        • killed and died of wounds: 52,623
        • died of disease: 18,830
        • TOTAL: 71,453
    • TOTAL (Verluststatistik): 129,400
  • Small & Singer
    • Japanese: 85,000
    • Russian: 45,000
    • TOTAL: 130,000
  • Eckhardt: 130,000
  • Urlanis, both sides:
    • Killed: 99,000
    • Disease: 40,000
    • TOTAL: 139,000
  • Gilbert
    • Japanese: 58,000
    • Russian: 120,000
    • TOTAL: 178,000
Maji-Maji Revolt, German East Africa (1905-07): 175 000 [make link]
  • R. July, A History of the African People (1974): 70,000
  • Rudolf von Albertini, European Colonial Rule, 1880-1940: official estimate of 75,000
  • 1911 Britannica: officially 120,000 men, women and children
  • Eckhardt: 150,000
  • Dict.Wars: 200,000
  • Cambridge History of Africa: 200,000 total, 400 on the German side incl. 15 whites
  • Robert Edgerton, The Fall of the Asante Empire: 250-300,000
  • T. Packenham, The Scramble for Africa (1991): 250-300,000
Libya (1911-31): 125 000 [make link]
  • Sanusi resistance to Italian rule:
    • K. Shillington, History of Africa (1995): 100,000 civilians died in concentration camps.
    • John Wright, Libya A Modern History (1982):
      • Wright estimates that the native population fell by 125,000.
      • He cites these additional sources:
        • Muammar Gaddhafi claimed in 1969 that 750,000 Libyans (i.e. half the total population) died under the Italians.
        • While administering the territory prior to independence, the UN estimated that 250,000 to 300,000 natives died between 1912 and 1942.
    • Denis Mack Smith, Mussolini's Roman Empire (1976): 20,000 died in concentration camps, with perhaps 100,000 Bedouins (or half the Bedouin population) dying overall.
    • Clodfelter: 40,000 d. in combat, both sides, 1923-31. 100,000 Senusi d. all causes.
    • Eckhardt:
      • Civil War w/ Italy (1911-17): 16,000
      • Italian conquest (1920-32): 40,000
      • Civil War w/ Italy (1930-32): 40,000
      • TOTAL: 96,000
Balkan Wars (1912-13): 140 000 [make link]
  • Singer, battle deaths [TOTAL: 142,500]
    • First Balkan War (1912-13)
      • Turkey: 30,000
      • Bulgaria: 32,000
      • Serbia: 15,000
      • Greece: 5,000
      • [TOTAL: 82,000]
    • Second Balkan War (1913)
      • Turkey: 20,000
      • Bulgaria: 18,000
      • Serbia: 19,000
      • Greece: 2,000
      • Romania: 2,000
      • [TOTAL: 60,500]
  • Clodfelter [TOTAL: 129,500]
    • First Balkan War (1912-13)
      • Turkey: 30,000
      • Bulgaria: 32,000
      • Serbia: 15,000
      • Greece: 5,000
      • Montenegro: 3,000
      • [TOTAL: 85,000]
    • Second Balkan War (1913)
      • Bulgaria: 20,000 (53,825 died + killed in both wars, 60% from disease)
      • Serbia: 18,500
      • Greece: 2,500
      • Turkey: 2,000
      • Romania: 1,500
      • [TOTAL: 44,500]
  • Eckhardt
    • 1st B.W.: 82,000
    • 2nd B.W.: 61,000
    • [TOTAL: 143,000]
  • Urlanis, all parties:
    • KIA: 122,000
    • Disease: 82,000
    • Dead of wounds: 20,000
    • TOTAL: 224,000
Russo-Polish War (1918-1920): 100 000
  • Singer
    • USSR: 60,000
    • Poland: 40,000
    • TOTAL: 100,000
  • Eckhardt: 100,000
  • Urlanis calculates 37,000 Poles KIA, and cites...
    • Polish official commission:
      • killed: 17,278 (Urlanis: "underestimation")
      • dead: 30,337
      • missing: 51,374
Turkey (1925-28) [make link]
  • Kurdish uprising
    • David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (1996) says that Kurdish "propaganda reports" claiming that 15,000 were massacred and that 200,000 deportees perished "may have been exaggerated".
    • Dan Smith believes them: "Turkish troops crush Kurdish uprising killing 250,000."
Chaco War (1932-35): 100 000 [make link]
  • Dictionary of 20C World History
    • Bolivia: 50,000
    • Paraguay: 35,000
    • TOTAL: 85,000
  • Bruce Farcau, The Chaco War (1991), deaths from all causes
    • Bolivia: 50,000
    • Paraguay: 40,000
    • TOTAL: 90,000
  • Marley
    • Bolivia: 57,000
    • Paraguay: 36,000
    • TOTAL: 93,000
  • Our Times: 100,000
  • Clodfelter
    • Paraguay
      • KIA: 12,000
      • Disease: 36,000
    • Bolivia: 52,397, incl...
      • KIA: 25,000
      • Died as POWs: 4,264
    • [TOTAL: 100,397]
  • Small & Singer
    • Bolivia: 80,000
    • Paraguay: 50,000
    • TOTAL: 130,000
  • John Gunther, Inside Latin America: 135,000
  • Eckhardt: 70,000 civ. + 130,000 mil. = 200,000
Russo-Finnish War (1939-1940): 150 000 [make link]
  • COWP
    • USSR: 50,000
    • Finland: 24,900
    • TOTAL: 74,900
  • Gilbert
    • USSR: 58,000
    • Finland: 27,000
    • TOTAL: 85,000
  • Singer
    • USSR: 50,000
    • Finland: 40,000
    • TOTAL: 90,000
  • Eckhardt: 90,000
  • Roger Reese, The Soviet Military Experience : A History of the Soviet Army, 1917-1991
    • Red Army: 126,875 killed and missing
  • Clodfelter
    • Finland: 23,157 KIA
    • USSR
      • according to Molotov: 48,745 KIA
      • most others give 175-200,000
    • [TOTAL: ca. 200,000-225,000]
  • Eloise Engle, The Winter War: The Soviet Attack on Finland 1939-1940
    • Finland: 25,000
    • Soviets: one million killed, according to Khrushchev
  • [I'm adding Clodfelter's Finns to Reese's Soviets for my total.]
Greek Civil War (1943-49): 158 000 [make link]
  • Our Times: 50,000
  • Hartman, citing Jan.1951 Stratiokita, the Greek general staff weekly:
    • Greek Army: 12,777 killed, 4527 missing
    • Civilians executed by Communists: 4,289
    • Communists: 38,000
    • [TOTAL: 55,066, maybe 59,593]
  • WPA3: 12,777 Greek soldiers; 38,000 Communists
  • Howard Jones, "A New Kind of War" (1989) estimates 13,000 govt. dead or missing + 38,000 guerrillas, and cites ...
    • Kousalas: 16,753 gov't dead
    • Averoff-Tossizze: 36,839 guerillas counted, but probably 50,000 killed.
    • O'Ballance: 158,000 total
  • P. Johnson: 80,000
  • C. M. Woodhouse, The Struggle for Greece
    • 70,000 dead on the gov't side, incl. 15,000 soldiers
    • 38,000 rebels killed.
    • 5,000 executions, both sides.
    • TOTAL: 128,000
  • Urlanis: 148,000
  • Edgar O'Ballance, The Greek Civil War : 1944-1949 (1966): 158,000 dead, half Communist forces, half Govt and civilians. He also cites Greek govt figures for 6/1945-3/1949:
    • Democratic Army (Comm.): 28,992 k.
    • Greek Natl Army: 10,927 k + 3,756 missing
    • Civilians: 3156 executed by DA and EPON + 731 k. by mines, etc.
    • [TOTAL: 43,806 to 47,562]
  • Clodfelter
    • Greek National Army: 15,969 k.
    • Greek Democratic Army: >50,000 k.
    • TOTAL: 158,000
  • B&J: 158,000
  • T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996): 158,000
  • Singer: 160,000
  • Eckhardt: 160,000
Yugoslavia, Tito's Regime (1944-80): 200 000 [make link]
  • Killed by Communists shortly after coming to power
    • Mark Mazower, Dark Continent: up to 60,000
    • 9 July 1990 NY Times: 70-100,000
      • Anti-Communist emigres claim ca. 500,000 killed
    • John Lampe, Yugoslavia as History: 100,000
    • Marcus Tanner, Croatia: a Nation Forged in War: est. for the number of returning POWs k. by Communists in the Bleiburg massacre range from 30,000 to 200,000 (The upper number being favored by Croat nationalists)
    • Noel Malcolm, Bosnia: a Short History: 250,000
    • Rummel: 500,000
    • MEDIAN: 100,000-250,000
  • Rummel estimates 1,072,000 democides under Tito, but 500,000 of these are associated with the immediate aftermath of WW2. He estimates the death toll for the Communist regime after the war clouds settled (i.e. 1945-87) to be 572,000.
Colombia (1946-58): 200 000 [make link]
  • La Violencia
    • Clodfelter
      • Peasants: 85,144 k
      • Other civilians: 39,856, incl. armed gangs
      • Colombian military: 6,200
      • Police: 3,620
      • TOTAL, incl. died of wounds and disappeared: 180,000 (through 1958) + 20,000 (1959-62)
    • Grenville: 200,000
    • Britannica: 200,000
    • Dictionary of 20C World History: 200,000
    • Hammond: 200,000
    • Eckhardt: 200,000 civ. + 100,000 mil. = 300,000
    • Singer: 300,000
Romania (1948-89): 150 000 [make link]
  • Communist Regime
    • Rummel: 435,000 democides, 1948-87
    • Robert Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts (1993): 100,000 forced laborers died building the Danube-Black Sea Canal, 1949-53
      • This may be an exaggeration. Both Chirot (Modern Tyrants) and Mazower (Dark Continent) number the total living labor force on the Canal at 40,000.
    • 24 Oct. 2000 AP: 100,000 peasants and prisoners perished in prison or building the canal.
    • George Hodos, Show Trials (1987): 75,000 executed during 1st 4 years of Communism.
    • 8 Jan. 1990 Time: A Romanian court found Ceausescu guilty of genocide, with 60,000 victims.
Burma/ Myanmar (1948 et seq.): 130 000 [make link]
  • All Civil Wars
    • WHPSI: 5,598 deaths by pol. viol. (1948-77)
    • Dan Smith, New State of War Atlas (1991): 20,000-40,000 killed by more than four decades of war.
    • Rummel (1948-87)
      • Parliamentary Republic, 1948-62: 20,000 (50% democidal)
      • Socialist Republic, 1962-87: 107,000 (40% democidal)
      • TOTAL: 127,000
    • B&J: 140,000 (1949-95)
    • Clodfelter
      • Estim. 1948-55: >28,000 violent d.
      • Nov.1958-Apr.1960: 2278 rebels k.
      • 1984 (typical?): 1870 rebels + 566 govt. k.
      • [Calculation: That's 32,714 over some ten years. If we assume some 3,300 k/yr, that's 33,000/decade, and 165,000 by 1998. That's probably the max.]
  • Govt. vs. Karens
    • 1948-51: 8,000 (Singer; SIPRI 1997, Eckhardt)
    • 1981-88: 5,000 to 8,500 (SIPRI 1997)
    • 1949-2001: 100,000 civilian and rebel Karens (Globe and Mail, 9 Jan. 2001)
  • Gov't vs. Communists (1980): 5,000 (Eckhardt)
  • Gov't vs. KMT (1948-54): >1,000 (B&J)
East Germany (1949-89): 100 000
  • Communist Regime
    • 27 Oct. 1991 LA Times: 100,000 died in captivity or were executed for political offenses in E.G. (citing an official report by the unified German govt.)
    • 27 Oct 1991 Independent (London): 100,000 d., incl. 65,000 in or on way to post-war Soviet camps.
    • Rummel: 70,000 democides, 1948-87
    • 9 April 1990 UPI: 90,000 (acc. to Association for the Victims of Stalinism) or 56,000 (other sources) Germans k./d in Soviet detention camps after WW2. Mostly hunger.
    • 23 June 1991 Chicago Tribune: 40,000 German political prisoners d. in Soviet-run camps after WW2
    • WHPSI: 6,162 political executions, 1948-52
    • 12 Aug 2004 Agence France Presse: 1,065 died fleeing E. Germany; 227 died in Berlin, 190 after the construction of the Wall.
Guatemala (1960-1996): 200 000 [make link]
  • 29 Dec. 1996 New York Times: 100,000 dead and 40,000 disappeared, presumed dead
  • War Annual 8: ditto
  • 5 Dec. 1996 Washington Post: ditto
  • CDI: 140,000 dead
  • Chomsky
    • (1991)
      • Total : 200,000
    • (1987)
      • Murders: 150,000
      • Killed, 1966-68: 10,000
      • Killed, 1980-85: 50,000
      • Total, 1954-83 (27 Nov. 1983 NYTimes citing Guatamalan Human Rights Comm.): 40,000 disapp. + 95,000 deaths.
  • Grenville: 35,000 disappearances
  • Harff & Gurr: 30,000 to 63,000 Indians, leftists were victims of repressive genocide, 1966-84
  • Dict.Wars: 150,000 dead + 50,000 missing
  • Commission for Historical Clarification [http://hrdata.aaas.org/ceh/report/english/conc1.html]
    • 42,275 Victims of human rights violations, including...
      • 23,671 arbitrary executions
      • 6,159 forced disappearances
    • Total number of persons killed or disappeared as a result of the conflict: over 200,000 (including the above)
  • 29 April 1999 AP: 200,000
Congo Crisis (1960-64): 100 000
  • WHPSI: 14,003 deaths by political violence, 1958-67.
  • Dan Smith (1997): 100,000 killed in 1960 war.
  • Eckhardt: 100,000
  • Singer: 100,000, plus 50 Belgians (1960-67)
  • B&J: 110,000 (1960-64)
  • Dunnigan (1991): 100,000 to 110,000
  • Peter Forbath (The River Congo (1977)): at least 200,000
North Yemen (1962-70): 100 000
  • 1984 World Almanac: 150,000
  • Singer: 100,000 (plus 1,000 Egyptians)
  • Eckhardt: 101,000
  • B&J: 100,000 (incl. 1,000 Egyptians + 1,000 Saudis, 1962-67)
  • 5 March 1991 AP: 70,000
Philippines (1972- )
  • Guerrilla Wars
    • 29 Jan. 2003 Philippine Daily Inquirer: Killed in Communist rebellion, AFP Intelligence Service report:
      • Government forces: 9,867 (1971-2002)
      • Communist rebels: 22,799 (1971-2002)
      • Civilians: 10,672 (crossfire, 1969-2002)
      • Total: 43,338
    • 1990 SIPRI: 50,000 (Moro insurrection, Mindinao: 1975-1986)
    • 1992 War Annual: 50,000
    • B&J: 60,000, Mindinao, 1970-95
    • Eckhardt (1972-87)
      • vs. Muslims: 20,000 civ. + 15,000 mil. = 35,000
      • vs. Communists: 20,000 civ. + 15,000 mil. = 35,000
      • TOTAL: 70,000
    • CDI: 75,000 (Govt. vs. New People's Army and National Liberation Front: 1969-97)
    • Ploughshares 2000
      • Mindinao: 100,000-150,000 since 1971
      • vs. NPA: 25,000 since 1969
      • TOTAL: 150,000 ± 25,000
    • D.Smith (1991): 80,000 ("20 years")
    • Dictionary of 20C World History: 120,000 (Moro insurrection, Mindinao: 1969-1996)
East Timor, Conquest by Indonesia (1975-99): 200 000 [make link]
  • Early:
    • Compton's: 100,000 killed in the first year
    • Encarta: 100,000 ditto
    • D.Smith: 100,000 ditto
    • 15 Sept. 1999 AP, for the first couple of years
      • 1977 Indonesia's foreign minister: 50-80,000
      • 1985 Amnesty International report: 200,000 (''pulled out of thin air,'' based on church census in 1974 and Indonesian census in the 1980s)
  • Total:
    • The Timor-Leste Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation (CAVR), Conflict-Related Deaths In Timor-Leste: 1974-1999 [http://www.cavr-timorleste.org/updateFiles/english/CONFLICT-RELATED%20DEATHS.pdf]
      • Official estimate: The lowest possible number of conflict-related deaths: 102,800 (+/- 12,000). That includes 18,600 (+/- 1,000) killed or disappeared, plus 84,200 (+/- 11,000) excess hunger and illness. The commission speculated that the maximum number due to excess hunger and illness could have been 183,000 [The total range therefore: 90,800 to 202,600]
    • Eckhardt: 90,000 civ. + 10,000 mil. = 100,000 (1975-87)
    • Dunnigan: 90,000 to 200,000
    • Rummel: 150,000 (1975-87)
    • CDI: 150,000 (1975-97)
    • FAS 2000: as many as 60,000 in first assault; 100,000 to 250,000 as of 1979.
    • B&J:
      • 1975-76: 100,000
      • TOTAL: 200,000
    • [MEDIAN: 200,000]
    • War Annual 6: 100,000 killed in the first year, and another 100,000 over the next decade or so.
    • Ploughshares 2000: >200,000
    • Chomsky (1987): 200,000 to 300,000 by 1979
    • Dict.Wars: 250,000
    • Our Times: 300,000
  • Intensified violence, 1999
    • 15 Sept. 1999 AP: "estimates range upwards wildly from 600"
      • a Roman Catholic aid agency: 20,000
      • UN World Food Program: up to 7,000
Lebanon (1975-90): 150 000 [make link]
  • Killed in the first couple of years: 40,000 (P.Johnson), 60,000 (1984 World Almanac; Hartman; Compton's), 60,099 (WHPSI 1975-77)
  • Total killed since the trouble began:
    • Eckhardt
      • 1975-76 Civil War: 75,000 civ. + 25,000 mil. = 100,000
      • 1982-87 Israeli vs PLO: 40,000 civ. + 12,000 mil. = 62,000
      • TOTAL: 162,000
    • WPA3: 150,000 (1975-91)
    • 14 Apr. 2000 LA Times: 150,000
    • 14 Dec. 1985 Montreal Gazette: 150,000 (to 1985)
    • 24 Dec. 1989 Arizona Republic: 150,000
    • [MEDIAN: ca. 150,000]
    • 9 March 1992 AP: > 144,000 k, citing official police statistics
      • Not incl. 6,630 "killed ... in related conflicts involving Palestinians", such as...
        • Power struggles between rival factions of Palestinians: 2,000 deaths
        • 3,781 killed in fighting between Shiite militia and PLO
        • 857 Pal. & Leb. k. by Christian militia in Sabra and Chatila refugee camps in 1982.
      • "17,415 people remain missing [and] are presumed dead" [I don't know if these were included or not.]
    • Dict.Wars: 144,000
    • SIPRI 1990: 131,000 (to 1989)
    • US State Dept.: >100,000 [http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5419.htm]
    • War Annual 6: 100,000 (to 1983)
    • CDI: 60,000 (1975-97)
  • Shia Amal-PLO War (1985-87)
    • 22 Nov. 1986 LA Times: >1,000 k.
    • 11 Dec. 1986 NY Times: >1,500 k
    • 9 March 1992 AP: 3,781 k
  • Israeli Invasion
    • 3 Sept. 1982 Washington Post
      • Beirut newspaper An Nahar est. 17,825 k. during invasion
        • Outside Beirut
          • Military personnel: 9,797 (PLO, Syria, etc.)
          • Civilians: 2,513
        • Beirut area: 5,515 (mil. + civ.)
    • 14 October 1982 Christian Science Monitor
      • Beirut massacre: 2,000 k. acc2 Lebanese govt.
      • Throughout Lebanon
        • An Nahar: 48,028 casualties, incl. 17,825 k.
        • Palestine Red Crescent Society: 27,000 casualties (k+w)
    • 5 March 1991 AP
      • Israel: 657 k.
      • Syrians: 370
      • PLO: 1,000
      • Lebanese and Palestinians: 19,000+, mostly civilians
    • 14 Dec. 1985 Montreal Gazette: 650 Israelis k. (1981-84)
    • 24 Dec. 1989 Arizona Republic: 654 Israelis
    • Ploughshares 2000: 12,000 people, including 500 Israelis, killed during the 1978 and 1982 invasions of Lebanon
  • Outsiders:
    • 237 (Info. Please 1991), 239 (Gilbert) or 241 (Our Times) USAns, and 58 French (Our Times) killed in Oct. 1983 bombings.
    • 9 March 1992 AP
      • 241 USAns + 58 French (1983); plus 75 k at US Embassy (1983+84)
    • US State Dept.
      • April 1983, U.S. Embassy, W. Beirut: 63 k
      • October 1983, US & Fr HQ: 298 k
      • September 1984, US Embassy annex, E. Beirut: 9 k
    • A total of 273 military USAns killed, 1982-84 according to House Res. 45,108th Conngress, 1st Session
    • 1,000 Syrians KIA, 1976 (Singer)
Cambodian Civil War (1978-91): 225 000 [make link]
  • Eckhardt
    • Vietnam vs Cambodia, 1978-87
      • 14,000 civ. + 10,000 mil. = 24,000
  • CDI: >25,000 (possibly just refers to the substantiated Vietnamese losses)
  • SIPRI 1996, (1979-89)
    • Vietnamese battle dead: 25,300
    • Cambodian battle dead: >50,000
  • Wallechinsky:
    • Cambodians: 200,000
    • Vietnamese: 25,300
  • Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995)
    • Vietnamese: 25,300
    • Cambodians: 100,000 (1978-79) + 100,000 thereafter, not including deaths among refugees
  • B&J: 500,000, incl. 50,000 Vietnamese
  • Rummell: 1,160,000 deaths, 1979-87
    • War Dead: 60,000
    • Famine: 250,000 (non-democidal)
    • Democide: 850,000
      • by Samrin: 230,000
      • by Vietnam: 460,000
      • by Khmer Rouge: 150,000
      • by others: 10,000
Kurdistan (1980s, 1990s): [make link]
  • In Iraq:
    • 1987 War Annual: 300,000 (1983-87)
    • Washington Post, 6 June 93: 70-120,000 (1987-89)
    • David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (1996): 150-200,000 (Anfal operations, 1988)
    • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 280,000 (1961-1999), incl. 180,000 between 1976 and 1988, and 10,000 in 1991.
    • HRW: Chemical attack on Halabja, 1988: 4,000 to 7000 civ. killed. 3,200 names collected. [http://hrw.org/reports/1993/iraqanfal/ANFAL3.htm]
    • Ploughshares 2000
      • Total 1961-2000: >100,000
      • Fighting among rival Kurds since 1994: 5,000 k
      • Anfal operations
        • US State Dept.: 70-150,000
        • Human Rights Watch: 50-100,000
    • B&J:
      • 1974-75: 3,000
      • 1976-95: 60,000
      • TOTAL: 63,000
    • 857 cartons of detailed files kept by the Iraqi secret police describing genocide against the Kurds emerged in 1991-92.
      • Time 1 June 1992: 200,000 to 300,000 killed (late 80s)
      • AP 7 Dec. 1991: 200,000 k (1986-1991)
      • Chicago Tribune 26 May 1992: 200,000 to 300,000 (1988-91)
  • In Iran:
    • Under Islamic Republic, 1979 to Feb. 1981: 10,000 (David McDowall, A Modern History of the Kurds (1996))
    • 1979-89: 17,000 (SIPRI 1990)
    • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 17,000, incl. 10,000 military (1979-99)
    • 1980-90: 50,000 (1990 War Annual 4)
  • In Turkey:
    • 4 April 95 Washington Post: 15,000 (1985-95)
    • B&J: 18,000 (1984-95)
    • Ploughshares 2000: 30-40,000
    • 29 April 1999 AP: 37,000 (1984-99)
    • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 40,000 (1984-99)
  • TOTAL:
    • Adding the numbers above puts the total in the 200 to 400 thousand range. OTOH, the CDI estimates a total of 120,000 deaths between 1961 and 1997 in Iran, Turkey and Iraq. (see also Iraq, 1961-70)
Liberia (1989-2003): 250 000 [make link]
  • Govt v National Patriotic Front (1st Civil War: 1989-1997):
    • Edgerton: 100,000
    • D. Smith: 150,000 "in 1990 alone"
    • CDI: 150,000 (1990-97)
    • B&J: 150,000 (1989-95)
    • Berkeley, The Graves Are Not Yet Full (2001): as many as 150,000 murdered
    • Chicago Tribune (17 Apr. 1996): 150,000
    • Time (28 July 1997): as many as 200,000
    • War Annual 8 (1997): 200,000
  • LURD and MODEL insurrections (2nd Civil War: 1999-2003)
    • Lydia Polgreen, "A Master Plan Drawn in Blood", NY Times, April 2, 2006: 300,000
  • Combined 14-year civil war:
    • Boston Globe (29 March 2003): 200,000
    • 22 July 2003 The Times (London): 200,000
    • Truth and Reconciliation Committee, Volume 1: Preliminary Findings and Determinations, p.44 [https://www.trcofliberia.org/reports/final/volume-one_layout-1.pdf]: 250,000 dead
Algeria (1992-2002): 100 000
  • Fundamentalist Moslem Insurrection, govt. vs. FIS and GIA:
    • CDI: 75,000 (1992-97)
    • Washington Post, 13 Jan. 1998: 75,000
    • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 80,000
    • Dict.Wars (1999): 70,000
    • Ploughshares 2000: 100,000
    • New York Times: 60-70,000 (15 Jan. 1998); 100,000 (27 Jan. 2000)
    • 26 June 2003 Agence France Presse: 100,000+
    • 8 April 2004 Guardian: up to 150,000
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992-95): 175 000 [make link]
  • Total
    • U.S. State Dept.: 250,000 (Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1996 [http://www.state.gov/www/global/human_rights/1996_hrp_report/bosniahe.html])
    • 29 April 1999 AP: 250,000
    • Compton's Encyclopedia: 200,000
    • 6 April 2002 Times [London]: 200,000, incl...
      • D. in siege of Sarajevo: 15,000
      • Massacred in Srebrenica: 8,000
    • MEDIAN: ca. 175,000
    • International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights: more than 160,000 (Annual Report 1997 [http://www.ihf-hr.org/ar97bos.htm])
    • Dan Smith (The State of War and Peace Atlas 1997) uses the Bosnian War as the example of how difficult it is to estimate accurate death tolls, but in the end, he settles for 150,000.
    • B&J: >60,000
    • George Kenney, The Bosnia Calculation (NY Times Magazine, 23 April 1995): 25,000 to 60,000 ([http://suc.suc.org/politics/myth/articles/042395.George_Kenney.html])
  • Srebrenica
    • 6 July 2000 LA Times:
      • 4,700 bodies exhumed
      • Internat. Red Cross estimates total of 7,079 k.
      • Amal Masovic's B-H govt. commission: 8,400
Zaire (Dem. Rep. Congo), Civil War (1997) [make link]
  • CDI: 250,000 (In the table, this is given as the number of deaths, but in the text, the number is described as an uninvestigated "disappearance".)
  • 20 Feb. 1998 Agence France Presse: 200,000 refugees "unaccounted for", according to UN.
  • Donald G. McNeil, “In Congo, Forbidding Terrain Hides a Calamity”, June 1, 1997, New York Times: out of 1.4 M Rwandan refugees in Zaire ...
    • 700,000 fled east when the war began.
    • 400,000 fled west, of which ...
      • 125,000 eventually returned to Rwanda
      • 53,000 remained in Zaire
      • 222,000 disappeared.
  • Amnesty International, 23 Nov. 1998: "as many as" 200,000 Rwandese Hutu refugees massacred by AFDL and RPA. ([http://www.amnesty.org/ailib/aipub/1998/AFR/16203698.htm])
  • Howard W. French,  “Kagame's Hidden War in the Congo”, September 24, 2009, New York Review of Books [http://www.nybooks.com/articles/23054]: 300,000, citing Prunier, Africa's World War

source: http://necrometrics.com/20c100k.htm

Matt 24: End Time Signs: "And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars"

I have heard it oft quoted that there were more wars in the last century than in all the other centuries put together. I have looked for statistics, which are a bit difficult to find. I do know however that war is being escalated at a horrific rate the past fifteen years or so in particular. Here is a list from 4th century to 2006. You fill in the gaps from there; it's horrific.


  1. Greek Wars, 5th and 4th Centuries BCE
    • Democracies: City-states such as Athens, Syracuse et. al.
    • Rebuttal: Citizenship was limited to an elite minority which excluded women, slaves, foreigners, etc.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Among the citizenry, all voices were equal.
    • Quote: From The Wars of the Ancient Greeks by V. D. Hanson: "[D]emocratic practices abroad meant nothing at home when it was a question of Athenian self-interest -- the Assembly might ...readily fight to exterminate democracies like Syracuse (415-413).... Athenians ... fought for two years against [Syracuse,] the only other large democracy in the Greek World."
  2. Punic Wars, 2nd and 3rd Centuries BCE
    • Democracies: Rome vs. Carthage.
    • Rebuttal, Counter-rebuttal: Same as for the Greek democracies.
  3. American Revolution, 1775-1783
    • Democracies: United States vs. Great Britain
    • Rebuttal: On the one hand, Great Britain was more liberal than most monarchies and it had a reasonably independent parliament, but on the the other hand, the franchise was quite restricted until the Reform Bill of 1832. Also, the United States was run by a provisional coalition during the war, and the country did not become a working democracy until after independence.
    • Counter-rebuttal: One of the most frequently stated goals of the American rebels was that they were entitled to enjoy all the civil rights quaranteed to native-born Englishmen (e.g. parliamentary representation, due process of law), but denied to the colonists. This certainly sounds like the Americans themselves recognized England as a model for their own democratic hopes.
  4. American Indian Wars, 1776-1890
    • Democracies: United States vs. various Native American Indian tribes.
    • Rebuttal: The tribes did not have enough formal structure to be considered real democracies.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Well, just for starters, the Iroqouian Confederation was rather complex.
  5. French Revolutionary Wars, 1793-1799
    • Democracies: France vs. Great Britain, Switzerland, the Netherlands
    • Rebuttal: For Britain, see the comments for 1775. Also, France at this time was lurching left and right, with bloody purges each time, so it hardly qualifies as a stable democracy.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Under the Directory, 1795-99, France was a relatively stable republic.
  6. Franco-American Naval War, 1797-1799
    • Democracies: United States vs. France
    • Rebuttal: It was a Quasi War, for God's sake; even historians call it that. It was little more than a trade war with sporadic ritualized broadsides.
    • Counter-rebuttal: According to official Navy statistics (http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq56-1.htm), the US lost 20 sailors and marines in the Quasi War. Relative to the numbers involved, it was bloodier than the Gulf War.
  7. Anglo-American War, 1812-1815
    • Democracies: United States vs. Great Britain
    • Rebuttal: For Britain, use the same two hands as with the 1st Anglo-American War of 1775.
  8. Franco-Roman War, 1849
    • Democracies: France vs. the Roman Republic.
    • Rebuttal: Both democratic regimes were less than a year old, and therefore don't count as stable democracies.
    • Counter-rebuttal: C'mon, that's just cheating. You're redefining your terms in order to exclude an awkward exception.
  9. American Civil War, 1861-65
    • Democracies: United States vs. Confederate States
    • Rebuttal: The Confederacy was a slave-holding nation and therefore definitely not a democracy -- and while we're at it, the same could be said for the Union as well. Also, "[t]he South was not a sovereign democracy at that time... President Jefferson Davis was not elected, but appointed by representatives selected by confederate states. There was an election in 1861, but it was not competitive." [Rummel]
    • Counterrebuttal: Both nations used almost identical Constitutions, which were easily the most democratic in the world at the time. Both nations conducted state and congressional elections on schedule, despite the difficulties of wartime. They both allowed substantial dissent within their Congresses, even if the opposition in the South never quite formalized into a two party sytem. Every major policy decision in both nations was enacted and approved by elected officials. (And since when is being "appointed by representatives selected by [individual] states" undemocratic? Technically, that's how every American president has been chosen.)
  10. Occupation of Veracruz, 1861-62
    • Democracies: Great Britain vs. Mexico
    • Rebuttal: Yes, democratic Britain assisted France and Spain in seizing Veracruz from democratic Mexico (Juarez had been properly elected.), but this was achieved without fighting. As soon as their French allies geared up for military conquest of the whole country, the British pulled out.
    • Counterrebuttal: An invasion is war, even if the defenders don't fight back.
  11. Spanish-American War, 1898
    • Democracies: United States vs. Spain
    • Rebuttal: In Spain, "the two major political parties alternated in power, not by election but by arrangement preceding elections." [Rummel]
    • Counterrebuttal: It's hardly unknown for rival parties in a democracy to make a time-sharing agreement or grand coalition. In one form or another, it has happened in Austria (1955-66), Columbia (1958-74), Switzerland (from 1959), UK (1931-45). More importantly, when Spain lost the war, prime minister Sagasta resigned, and national leadership passed to his parliamentary opponents, exactly the same as we would expect in any other constitutional monarchy.
  12. Anglo-Boer War, 1899-1901
    • Democracies: Great Britain vs. Transvaal and the Orange Free State
    • Rebuttal: The franchise in the Boer Republics was limited to the white male elite.
  13. First World War, 1914-18
    • Democracies: France, Belgium, Great Britain, the USA, et. al. vs. Germany.
    • Rebuttal: Well, yes, the Imperial Reichtag was democratically elected by universal manhood suffrage, but it was a largely powerless body, like the UN. The real power in the German federation was in the hands of the Emperor who appointed the Chancellor and commanded the Army, and in the hands of the Junkers running the undemocratic parliament of the Kingdom of Prussia, which made up around half the federation.
    • Counterrebuttal: Sure, there were aristocratic privileges and traditions that were inconsistent with one-man-one-vote and full equality under the law, but Germany was every bit as democratic as the United Kingdom (cf. the House of Lords and English dominance over the indigenous peoples of Scotland, Ireland and Wales.) And the Reichtag controlled the budget, which is not exactly "powerless".
  14. Occupation of the Ruhr, 1923
    • Democracies: France vs. Germany.
    • Rebuttal: Germany didn't fight back.
    • Counterrebuttal: The same counterrebuttal as with the 1861 occupation of Veracruz.
  15. Second World War, 1940-45
    • Democracies: Great Britain, United States, et al. vs. Finland.
    • Rebuttal: Finland fought on the same side as the Nazis against the Soviet Union, not against the democratic Allies.
    • Counterrebuttal: Well, the British bombed Finland; that sounds like being at war. And 69 Finnish merchants ships were sunk outside of the Baltic Sea. [n.9] Also, every Finnish soldier fighting the USSR meant that one German soldier could be sent west to fight the Allies. Every Russian soldier killed by the Finns weakened the Allied war effort.
  16. First Indo-Pak War, 1947-49
    • Democracies: India vs. Pakistan.
    • Rebuttal: These regimes hadn't been around long enough to qualify as a stable democracies.
  17. Iran, Guatemala and Chile, 1953, 1954 and 1973 respectively.
    • Democracies: United-States-backed coups in Iran, Guatemala and Chile.
    • Rebuttals: It's not certain how deeply the CIA was involved in overthrowing these democratically elected governments, but even if it was in up to its neck, these were coups and not wars. Covert operations by shadowy, bureaucratic elites are not democratic. They are not publicly debated and approved beforehand by the citizenry.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Technically, every military operation in the modern world is enacted by secretive bureacracies without public debate. (Was D-Day put to a vote?) If using the CIA is undemocratic, then so is using the Army; and if using the Army is undemocratic, then democracies can't fight wars, period. QED.
  18. Lebanese Civil War, 1978, 1982
    • Democracies: Israel vs. Lebanon.
    • Rebuttal: Lebanon hardly counts as a stable democracy.
  19. Croatian War of Independence, 1991-92
    • Democracies: Croatia vs. Yugoslavia.
    • Rebuttal: These regimes hadn't been around long enough to qualify as a stable democracies.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Even so, both nations had government that had been put in place through free elections. Even Weart admits that.
  20. Border War, 1995
    • Democracies: Ecuador vs. Peru.
    • Rebuttal: President Fujimori of Peru had suspended the constitution in 1992, making himself a virtual dictator.
    • Counter-rebuttal: Just as virtual reality isn't reality, so a virtual dictator isn't a dictator. It is usually considered legal for a democratic leader to exercise emergency powers in an emergency, isn't it? Also, when Fujimori lost parliamentary support in 2000, he quit/was fired. Isn't the peaceful surrender of power one of the major tests of true democracy? [see also the 1898 Spanish-American War and the 1999 Kosovo War for similar applications of this test.]
  21. Kosovo War, 1999
    • Democracies: The countries of NATO vs. Yugoslavia.
    • Rebuttal: Milosovic was a dictator.
    • Counter-rebuttal: In the legislative elections of Nov. 1996, Milosovic's supporters won a mere 64 out of 138 seats in parliament, and control of government probably would have gone to the opposition had not infighting and internal divisions prevented them from claiming their place at the helm. In 1997, Milosovic was re-elected president by a plausible margin of 59% to 38% [n.1] which suggests that these elections were not entirely rigged either. In October 2000, a soundly beaten Milosovic actually conceded defeat after an apparently free presidential election. Sure it took a week or so of prodding to get him to vacate the presidential palace, but a concession is a concession nonetheless. (and he gave in quicker than Al Gore.)
  22. Fourth Indo-Pak War (Kargil War) 1999
    • Democracies: India vs. Pakistan.
    • Rebuttal: Those weren't Pakistanis. They were independent, volunteer guerrilla forces operating out of Pakistan, not regular troops.
    • Counter-Rebuttal: A technicality, at best. A cover story at worst. According to CNN [n.2], the insurgents were stiffened by Pakistani regulars, and supported by Pakistani artillery firing over the border into the neighboring democracy of India. The nations' air forces raided back and forth regularly.
    • Bad Rebuttal: And Pakistan wasn't even a democracy anyway. I seem to recall that they had a military coup sometime around then
    • Counter-Rebuttal in the form of a brief summary of a rather obscure war: That came later. The Pakistanis were driven back to the de facto international border on 17 July after two months of war. The civilian Prime Minister was deposed in October. The 2-month death toll was 1100, according to CNN.
  23. Israel-Lebanon War 2006
    • Democracies: Israel vs. Lebanon
    • Rebuttal: Lebanon is hardly a democracy.
    • Counter-Rebuttal: "A 100-member European Union (EU) delegation monitored voter registration, campaigns, and voting, and approved the [2005] election as free of foreign influence and fair" (Council on Foreign Relations)

list source: http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/demowar.htm

Matt 24: End Time Signs: Take heed that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many.

Take heed that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many.

How many have come?  Here's what two web sites have to say:


List of False Christs (cults)

posted by Dylan, 07.10.2007
(edited by Dylan on 07.10.2007)
1. John Nichols Thom
2. Ayya Valkundar
3. Klaus Kinski
4. Maria Devi Christos
5. Dore Williamson
6. Jim Jones
7. Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh
8. Michael Travesser
9. Mitsuo Matayoshi
10. Marshall Applewhite
11. Suma Ching Hai
12. Sergey Antoyevitch Torop
13. Grigory Petrovich Grabovoy
14. Jung Myung Scok
15. Suh Myung Moon
16. Maitreya Bodhisattua
17. Jose Luis De Jesus Miranda
18. Mirza Ghulam Ahmad
19. Mohammadi Begum
20. Joseph C. Dylkes
21. "Father Divine"
22. Hogen Fukunaga
23. Abu Isa
24. David Koresh
25. Krishna Venta
26. Charles Manson
27. Hakeem Noor-ud-Din
28. Solomon Molcho
29. Cyrus Teed
30. Yahweh ben Yahweh

Nineteenth century

[edit] Twentieth century

  • Krishna Venta (1911-1958), born Francis Herman Pencovic in San Francisco, founded the WKFL (Wisdom, Knowledge, Faith and Love) Fountain of the World cult in Simi Valley, California in the late 1940s. In 1948 he stated that he was Christ, the new messiah and claimed to have led a convoy of rocket ships to Earth from the extinct planet Neophrates. He died on 10 December 1958 after being suicide bombed by two disgruntled former followers who accused Venta of mishandling cult funds and having been intimate with their wives.
  • Ahn Sahng-Hong (1918–1985), a South Korean who founded the World Mission Society Church of God in 1964, who consider him the Second Coming of Jesus. The church believes that his wife Zahng Gil-Jah is "God the Mother," who they believe is referred to in the Bible as the New Jerusalem Mother (Galatians 4:26, and that Ahn Sahng-Hong is God the Father[10]
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_who_have_claimed_to_be_Jesus 

The Chance for Peace

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. . . . We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people."
–Dwight David Eisenhower, "The Chance for Peace," speech given to the American Society of Newspaper Editors, Apr. 16, 1953

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Matthew 24 (NKJV) : End Time Road-Map

I have had this passage on my mind for some years now as a significant and clear road-map for what is to come. i will make some comment on it soon :)

Jesus Predicts the Destruction of the Temple
 1 Then Jesus went out and departed from the temple, and His disciples came up to show Him the buildings of the temple. 2 And Jesus said to them, “Do you not see all these things? Assuredly, I say to you, not one stone shall be left here upon another, that shall not be thrown down.”
The Signs of the Times and the End of the Age
  
3 Now as He sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to Him privately, saying, “Tell us, when will these things be? And what will be the sign of Your coming, and of the end of the age?”
4 And Jesus answered and said to them: “Take heed that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many. 6 And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all[a]these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. 7 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences,[b] and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.
9 “Then they will deliver you up to tribulation and kill you, and you will be hated by all nations for My name’s sake. 10 And then many will be offended, will betray one another, and will hate one another. 11 Then many false prophets will rise up and deceive many. 12 And because lawlessness will abound, the love of many will grow cold. 13 But he who endures to the end shall be saved. 14 And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and then the end will come.
The Great Tribulation
  
15 “Therefore when you see the ‘abomination of desolation,’[c] spoken of by Daniel the prophet, standing in the holy place” (whoever reads, let him understand), 16 “then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. 17 Let him who is on the housetop not go down to take anything out of his house. 18 And let him who is in the field not go back to get his clothes. 19 But woe to those who are pregnant and to those who are nursing babies in those days! 20 And pray that your flight may not be in winter or on the Sabbath. 21 For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be. 22 And unless those days were shortened, no flesh would be saved; but for the elect’s sake those days will be shortened.
23 “Then if anyone says to you, ‘Look, here is the Christ!’ or ‘There!’ do not believe it. 24 For false christs and false prophets will rise and show great signs and wonders to deceive, if possible, even the elect. 25 See, I have told you beforehand.
26 “Therefore if they say to you, ‘Look, He is in the desert!’ do not go out; or ‘Look, He is in the inner rooms!’ do not believe it. 27 For as the lightning comes from the east and flashes to the west, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be. 28 For wherever the carcass is, there the eagles will be gathered together.
The Coming of the Son of Man
  
29 “Immediately after the tribulation of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from heaven, and the powers of the heavens will be shaken. 30 Then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven with power and great glory. 31 And He will send His angels with a great sound of a trumpet, and they will gather together His elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.
The Parable of the Fig Tree
  
32 “Now learn this parable from the fig tree: When its branch has already become tender and puts forth leaves, you know that summer is near. 33 So you also, when you see all these things, know that it[d] is near—at the doors! 34 Assuredly, I say to you, this generation will by no means pass away till all these things take place. 35 Heaven and earth will pass away, but My words will by no means pass away.
No One Knows the Day or Hour
  
36 “But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven,[e] but My Father only. 37 But as the days of Noah were, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be. 38 For as in the days before the flood, they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noah entered the ark, 39 and did not know until the flood came and took them all away, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be. 40 Then two men will be in the field: one will be taken and the other left. 41 Two women will be grinding at the mill: one will be taken and the other left. 42 Watch therefore, for you do not know what hour[f] your Lord is coming. 43 But know this, that if the master of the house had known what hour the thief would come, he would have watched and not allowed his house to be broken into. 44 Therefore you also be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an hour you do not expect.